HansRosling_2014S[汉斯.罗斯林 和 奥拉.罗斯林][如何不对世界感到无知].pdf

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1、www.XiYuS锡育软件Hans Rosling:Im going to ask you three multiple choicequestions.汉斯罗斯林;我会给你们做 三道多项选择题00:12Use this device.Use this device to answer.用这个装置来回答00:16The first question is,how did the number of deaths per yearfrom natural disaster,how did that change during the lastcentury?第一个问题是 在过去一个世纪里 每年因

2、自然灾害死亡的人数 发生了怎样的变化00:20Did it more than double,did it remain about the same in theworld as a whole,or did it decrease to less than half?是翻倍了 还是在全世界范围内总体不变 还是下降了一半呢00:28Please answer A,B or C.请选择A B 或C00:35I see lots of answers.This is much faster than I do it atuniversities.我已经看到很多人回答了这比我在大学里做的时候快得多

3、00:37They are so slow.They keep thinking,thinking,thinking.他们动作很慢 他们一直想啊 想啊00:41Oh,very,very good.好 很好00:44And we go to the next question.下一个问题00:46So how long did women 30 years old in the world go toschool:seven years,five years or three years?在全世界范围内 30岁的女性的 受教育的年限是七年 五年还是三年00:48A,B or C?Please a

4、nswer.A B 还是C 请回答00:55And we go to the next question.我们看下一个问题01:02In the last 20 years,how did the percentage of people in theworld who live in extreme poverty change?过去20年里 占世界人口多少百分比的人 生活在极端贫困中？01:04as a whole:总的来说Extreme poverty?not having enough food for the day.极端贫困指的是每天填不饱肚子01:12Did it almost

5、double,did it remain more or less the same,ordid it halve?是几乎翻倍了 还是基本维持不变 还是减半了？01:14Now,answers.现在 公布答案01:23You see,deaths from natural disasters in the world,you cansee it from this graph here,In 1900,there was about half amillion people who died every year from natural disasters:floods,earthquake

6、s,volcanic eruption,whatever,droughts.如你所见 全球因自然灾害死亡的人数 你可以从这幅图里看到 1900年 每年有接近50万人 死于自然灾害 洪水 地震 火山喷发 其他 干旱01:26And then,how did that change?然后 发生了怎样的变化呢01:44Gapminder asked the public in Sweden.Gapminder对瑞典公众进行了调查01:47This is how they answered.他们是这样回答的01:51The Swedish public answered like this:Fifty

7、 percent thoughtit had doubled,38 percent said its more or less the same,12said it had halved.瑞典公众的回答是这样的 50%的人认为翻倍了38%的人认为没太大变化 12%的人认为减半了01:52This is the best data from the disaster researchers,and itgoes up and down,and it goes to the Second World War,and after that it starts to fall and it keeps

8、 falling and itsdown to much less than half.对于灾害研究人员来说这是最理想的数字 然后上下有所浮动 然后到了二战 之后就开始一路下滑 下降至远低于一半02:00more or less:或多或少 halve:vt.二等分;把减半 disasters:n.灾难(disaster的复数)halved:v.对半分开;均分;把减半(halve的过去式和过去分词)up and down:上上下下;到处;前前后后;来来往往 much less:更不用说;不及The world has been much,much more capable as thedecad

9、es go by to protect people from this,you know.这个世界 相比数十年前而言 在保护人们免受自然灾害方面 的能力已经强了太多02:14So only 12 percent of the Swedes know this.只有12%的瑞典人知道这一点02:20So I went to the zoo and I asked the chimps.所以我去了趟动物园问了黑猩猩同样的问题02:23(Laughter)(Applause)The chimps dont watch the eveningnews,so the chimps,they choos

10、e by random,so the Swedesanswer worse than random.(笑声)(掌声)黑猩猩才不看晚间新闻 所以它们 是随机选择的所以瑞典人的正确率还不如随机02:26Now how did you do?现在来看看你们做的怎样？02:48TED演讲者：Hans Rosling and Ola Rosling|汉斯.罗斯林 和 奥拉.罗斯林演讲标题：How not to be ignorant about the world|如何不对世界感到无知内容概要：How much do you know about the world?Hans Rosling,with

11、his famous charts ofglobal population,health and income data(and an extra-extra-long pointer),demonstratesthat you have a high statistical chance of being quite wrong about what you think you know.Play along with his audience quiz then,from Hans.son Ola,learn 4 ways to quickly get lessignorant.你对这个世

12、界有多少认识?汉斯.罗斯林带着他着名的全球人口、健康和收入数据表格（还有一根超级长的教学棒），来证明你认为知道的那些事实，在统计中有很大概率是错误的。再配上他的观众测验然后，从汉斯的儿子奥拉那里，学习4种能快速摆脱变无知的方法。Thats you.这是你们的答案02:51You were beaten by the chimps.你们被黑猩猩打败了02:54(Laughter)But it was close.(笑声)但很接近了02:56You were three times better than the Swedes,but thats notenough.你们的正确率比瑞典人高了三倍

13、但这还不够03:01You shouldnt compare yourself to Swedes.你们不应该拿自己跟瑞典人比03:06You must have higher ambitions in the world.你们对于世界的野心肯定不止于此03:08Lets look at the next answer here:women in school.来看下一个答案女性所受的学校教育03:12Here,you can see men went eight years.这里 你可以看到男性是八年03:15How long did women go to school?女性所受的学校教育

14、年限是？03:17go by:经过;顺便走访;凭判断 Swedes:n.瑞典人(Swede的复数)chimps:n.(非洲的)黑猩猩 ambitions:n.野心;雄心;抱负(ambition的复数形式);理想Well,we asked the Swedes like this,and that gives you a hint,doesnt it?瑞典人是这么回答的 你从这里能总结出规律了 是吧03:19The right answer is probably the one the fewest Swedespicked,isnt it?正确的答案很可能是 最少瑞典人选择的那个 对吧03:

15、24(Laughter)Lets see,lets see.Here we come.(笑声)咱们来看看 开始03:29Yes,yes,yes,women have almost caught up.没错 没错 女性几乎赶上了03:33This is the U.S.public.这是美国公众的选择03:38And this is you.Here you come.然后这里是你们的选择 请看03:41Ooh.03:45Well,congratulations,youre twice as good as the Swedes,but you dont need me?So how come?

16、I think its like this,that everyone is aware that there are countries and there areareas where girls have great difficulties.祝贺大家 你们的正确率比瑞典人高一倍 但是你们不需要我来 怎么会这样？我想这是因为 大家都知道在有些国家 有些地区 女孩子们依然处于巨大的困境之中03:49They are stopped when they go to school,and its disgusting.她们不被允许去学校 这是令人无法接受的04:04But in the maj

17、ority of the world,where most people in theworld live,most countries,girls today go to school as long asboys,more or less.但是在世界上的大部分地方 在大部分人生活的地区 绝大多数国家女孩子们上学的时间 和男孩子们一样长 或多或少04:08That doesnt mean that gender equity is achieved,not at all.这并不意味着男女平等已经实现了 完全不是04:17difficulties:n.困难(difficulty的复数);磨难

18、gender:n.性;性别;性交/vt.生(过去式gendered,过去分词gendered,现在分词gendering,第三人称单数genders,形容词genderless)equity:n.公平,公正;衡平法;普通股;抵押资产的净值They still are confined to terrible,terrible limitations,butschooling is there in the world today.她们依然受到许多严重的束缚 但学校教育已经成为了主流04:21Now,we miss the majority.现在 我们忽略了大多数情形04:28When you

19、answer,you answer according to the worst places,and there you are right,but you miss the majority.当你回答问题时 你以最差的情形为依据 这并不意味着你错了但是你把大多数情形给忽略了04:32What about poverty?关于贫困呢？04:38www.XiYuS锡育软件Well,its very clear that poverty here was almost halved,andin U.S.,when we asked the public,only five percent got

20、 itright.非常明显 贫困率几乎减半 然而在美国 但我们向公众提问时 只有5%的人回答正确04:40And you?那你们呢？04:50Ah,you almost made it to the chimps.差一点就跟黑猩猩一样了04:53(Laughter)(Applause)That little,just a few of you!(笑声)(掌声)一点点 就差你们中的一小部分人！04:57There must be preconceived ideas,you know.先入为主的观念是一定存在的05:05And many in the rich countries,they th

21、ink that oh,we cannever end extreme poverty.很多富裕国家都认为 我们永远无法消除极端贫困05:08Of course they think so,because they dont even know whathas happened.他们当然是这么认为的 因为他们根本不知道发生了些什么05:14The first thing to think about the future is to know about thepresent.想要预知未来 必须先了解现在05:18confined:adj.狭窄的;幽禁的;有限制的;在分娩中的/v.限制(con

22、fine的过去式和过去分词)limitations:n.局限性;(限制)因素;边界(limitation的复数形式)schooling:n.学校教育;学费/v.教育(school的ing形式);培养 preconceived:adj.预想的;(思想或观点)事先形成的/v.预想(preconceive的过去式和过去分词)These questions were a few of the first ones in the pilot phaseof the Ignorance Project in Gapminder Foundation that werun,and it was starte

23、d,this project,last year以上这些问题是由我们负责的Gapminder基金会在 无知项目 的试运行阶段 所提出的问题中的一部分 这个项目是在去年 由我的老板05:23by my boss,and also my son,Ola Rosling.(Laughter)Hescofounder and director,and he wanted,Ola told me we haveto be more systematic when we fight devastating ignorance.同时也是我的儿子 奥拉罗斯林启动的(笑声)他是联合创始人兼总监 并且他想要 奥拉

24、告诉我 我们在对抗惊人的无知的战斗中 需要更具有系统性to be more systematic when we fight devastating ignorance.05:35So already the pilots reveal this,that so many in the publicscore worse than random,so we have to think aboutpreconceived ideas,and one of the main preconceived ideasis about world income distribution.试运行结果已经表明

25、 有许多公众的得分比随机选择还要低 所以我们不得不对那些先入为主的观点进行思考 其中一个主要的观点是 关于世界上的收入分配05:47Look here.This is how it was in 1975.看这个 这是1975年的数据05:58Its the number of people on each income,from one dollar aday?是人均收入的数值 从每天一美元06:02(Applause)See,there was one hump here,around one dollara day,and then there was one hump here som

26、ewherebetween 10 and 100 dollars.(掌声)看 这里有一个高峰 在每天一美元左右 然后这里还有一个高峰 大约在10到100美元之间06:08The world was two groups.世界上有两大群体06:18Ignorance:n.无知，愚昧；不知，不懂 cofounder:n.共同创办人 systematic:adj.系统的;体系的;有系统的;图情分类的;一贯的,惯常的 devastating:adj.毁灭性的；全然的/v.摧毁(devastate的ing形式)；毁坏 hump:n.驼峰;驼背;圆形隆起物/vi.隆起;弓起;努力;急速行进/vt.使隆起;

27、使烦恼It was a camel world,like a camel with two humps,the poorones and the rich ones,and there were fewer in between.像骆驼一样 有两个驼峰 穷人和富人 介于两者之间的人较少06:20But look how this has changed:As I go forward,what haschanged,the world population has grown,and the humpsstart to merge.但是我们来看看数字是如何变化的 随着时间推移发生了什么样的变化

28、 随着世界人口的增长 两个驼峰开始合并06:27The lower humps merged with the upper hump,and thecamel dies and we have a dromedary world with one humponly.低的驼峰向高的驼峰融合 骆驼死了然后我们得到了一头新的单峰骆驼 只有一个驼峰06:36The percent in poverty has decreased.贫困人口的比例减少了06:44Still its appalling that so many remain in extreme poverty.但是依然很惊人 有这么多人

29、仍然生活在极端贫困中06:46We still have this group,almost a billion,over there,but thatcan be ended now.大概还有接近10亿人 但这是可以被终结的06:50The challenge we have now is to get away from that,understand where the majority is,and that is very clearlyshown in this question.我们现在所面临的挑战是 如何摆脱这些观念 去了解大多数人的处境 这一点在以下问题中得到了充分的体现06

30、:57We asked,what is the percentage of the worlds one-year-oldchildren who have got those basic vaccines against measlesand other things that we have had for many years:问 世界上有多少比例的一岁儿童 接种了那些我们已经使用了多年的 对抗麻疹以及其他疾病的 疫苗07:05humps:驼峰/驼背/圆形隆起物(hump的复数)go forward:发生,前进 merge:vt.合并;使合并;吞没/vi.合并;融合 merged:v.合

31、并;融合(merge的过去分词)/adj.合并的;结了婚的 dromedary:n.单峰骆驼 decreased:减少的 appalling:adj.可怕的;令人震惊的/v.使惊愕;惊吓(appal的ing形式)vaccines:n.药计疫苗 measles:n.内科麻疹;风疹Now,this is what the U.S.public and the Swedish answered.这是美国和瑞典公众的回答07:15Look at the Swedish result:you know what the right answeris.看看瑞典的结果 你就该知道正确的答案是什么了07:19

32、(Laughter)Who the heck is a professor of global health inthat country?(笑声)该国有个搞全球健康研究的教授 是谁07:22Well,its me.Its me.好吧 是我07:29(Laughter)Its very difficult,this.Its very difficult.(笑声)这非常难 非常困难07:31(Applause)However,Olas approach to really measure whatwe know made headlines,and CNN published these res

33、ultson their web and they had the questions there,millionsanswered,and I think there were about 2,000 comments,andthis was one of the comments.(掌声)然而 奥拉用于 测量我们所知多少的方法 上了头条 CNN在网站上公布了调查结果 有几百万人回答了这些问题 然后我记得大概有两千多条评论其中一条是这么说的07:35I bet no member of the media passed the test,he said.我打赌新闻界没人能通过这个测试 他说0

34、7:56So Ola told me,Take these devices.然后奥拉跟我说 带上这些设备08:00You are invited to media conferences.你被邀请参加的是媒体圈的会议08:02Give it to them and measure what the media know.分给他们 然后测一测新闻界知道多少08:04And ladies and gentlemen,for the first time,the informalresults from a conference with U.S.media.女士们 先生们 首先 是来自一场美国媒体

35、会议上的非正式结果08:06conferences:n.会议(conference的复数形式)informal:adj.非正式的;不拘礼节的;通俗的;日常使用的 conference:n.会议;讨论;协商;联盟;(正式)讨论会;工会,工党用语(每年的)大会/vi.举行或参加(系列)会议And then,lately,from the European Union media.之后 是来自欧盟媒体的08:15(Laughter)You see,the problem is not that people dont readand listen to the media.(笑声)大家看 问题并不在

36、于 人们不读或者不听新闻08:20The problem is that the media doesnt know themselves.问题在于连媒体自己都不知道08:25What shall we do about this,Ola?我们对此该怎么办呢 奥拉?08:29Do we have any ideas?有什么主意吗?08:31(Applause)Ola Rosling:Yes,I have an idea,but first,Im sosorry that you were beaten by the chimps.(掌声)奥拉罗斯林;是的 我有个主意 但首先 对于你们被黑猩猩打

37、败 我表示很抱歉08:32Fortunately,I will be able to comfort you by showing why itwas not your fault,actually.幸运的是 我有办法安慰你们 因为其实这不是你们的错08:51Then,I will equip you with some tricks for beating the chimpsin the future.然后 我会给你们提供一些窍门 以便你们以后能够打败黑猩猩08:58Thats basically what I will do.我接下去会做的基本就是这些09:02But first,let

38、s look at why are we so ignorant,and it all startsin this place.首先 来看看为什么我们会如此的无知 一切都始于这个地方09:05Its Hudiksvall.Its a city in northern Sweden.这是胡迪克斯瓦尔 瑞典北部的一座城市09:09Its a neighborhood where I grew up,and its a neighborhoodwith a large problem.我在这个地方长大 这个地方有着一个很大的问题09:13Actually,it has exactly the sam

39、e problem which existed in allthe neighborhoods where you grew up as well.实际上 这个地方 跟你们从小所居住的那些地方 存在着一模一样的问题09:20ignorant:adj.无知的；愚昧的It was not representative.Okay?那就是不具备典型性09:26It gave me a very biased view of how life is on this planet.他让我对于“其他人是如何生活的”的看法是带有很强烈的偏见的09:29So this is the first piece of

40、 the ignorance puzzle.所以这是“无知拼图”的第一块09:34We have a personal bias.我们有个人偏见09:37We have all different experiences from communities andpeople we meet,and on top of this,we start school,and weadd the next problem.我们在各自的社区 和我们所遇见的人身上 所获得经验都是不同的 在此之上 我们还会上学 这就带来了下一个问题09:38Well,I like schools,but teachers t

41、end to teach outdatedworldviews,because they learned something when they wentto school,and now they describe this world to the studentswithout any bad intentions,and those books,of course,thatare printed are outdated in a world that changes.当然 我喜欢学校 但老师们倾向于教授过时的世界观 因为这些东西是他们上学的时候学到的 现在 尽管不带有任何的恶意 他们

42、又将这些知识教给了学生 还有书 在这个瞬息万变的世界里 那些印刷出来的书 当然也是过时的09:47And there is really no practice to keep the teaching materialup to date.并且没有一个有效的措施 能使教材与时俱进10:06So thats what we are focusing on.所以这就是我们的关注点10:10So we have these outdated facts added on top of ourpersonal bias.我们知道的是过时的情况 加上我们的个人偏见10:12What happens n

43、ext is news,okay?接下去就是新闻了 对吧？10:17biased:adj.有偏见的;结果偏倚的,有偏的 outdated:adj.过时的;旧式的/v.使过时(outdate的过去式和过去分词)up todate:adj.最新的;最近的;现代的An excellent journalist knows how to pick the story that willmake headlines,and people will read it because itssensational.一个杰出的记者很清楚 要如何选题才能上头条 人们之所以会看是因为它耸人听闻10:19Unusua

44、l events are more interesting,no?不寻常的事件才更有意思 不是吗？10:27And they are exaggerated,and especially things were afraidof.然后他们会夸大其词 尤其是那些令我们害怕的事情10:30A shark attack on a Swedish person will get headlines forweeks in Sweden.一名瑞典人遭到鲨鱼的攻击 这类新闻会在瑞典媒体上保持头条几星期10:36So these three skewed sources of information wer

45、e reallyhard to get away from.我们很难摆脱 这三类歪曲的消息来源10:42They kind of bombard us and equip our mind with a lot ofstrange ideas,and on top of it we put the very thing thatmakes us humans,our human intuition.它们对我们狂轰滥炸 并且用许多奇怪的观点武装来我们的思维 在此基础上 再加上一项人类独特的功能 我们的直觉10:49It was good in evolution.直觉对进化是有利的11:02It

46、 helped us generalize and jump to conclusions very,veryfast.它帮助我们很快的进行 归纳和总结11:04It helped us exaggerate what we were afraid of,and we seekcausality where there is none,and we then get an illusion ofconfidence where we believe that we are the best car drivers,above the average.帮助我们夸大我们所惧之事 当所惧之事没有发生

47、时我们就会寻找其中的因果关系 然后我们会获得莫名的自信 比如我们都自信自己是最好的司机 高于平均水平11:08sensational:adj.轰动的;耸人听闻的;非常好的;使人感动的 exaggerated:adj.夸张的,言过其实的/v.夸张,夸大(exaggerate的过去式)skewed:adj.歪斜的;曲解的 bombard:vt.轰炸;炮击/n.射石炮 intuition:n.直觉;直觉力;直觉的知识 generalize:vt.概括;推广;使.一般化/vi.形成概念 conclusions:n.结论,总结;决定(conclusion的复数)causality:n.因果关系Every

48、body answered that question,Yeah,I drive cars better.每个人都会回答;没错 我的车开的更好11:25Okay,this was good evolutionarily,but now when it comes tothe worldview,it is the exact reason why its upside down.好吧 这对进化来说是件好事 但是 当涉及到世界观时 这恰恰是导致结论颠倒的原因11:27The trends that are increasing are instead falling,and the有些趋势在上升

49、而不是下降 有些则相反 在这个例The trends that are increasing are instead falling,and theother way around,and in this case,the chimps use ourintuition against us,and it becomes our weakness instead ofour strength.子中 黑猩猩利用我们的直觉打败了我们 并且这逐渐成为了我们的弱点 而不是优势11:34It was supposed to be our strength,wasnt it?这应该是我们的优势所在的 不是

50、吗？11:46So how do we solve such problems?那么我们该如何解决这类问题呢？11:49First,we need to measure it,and then we need to cure it.首先 我们要进行衡量 然后我们再来纠正11:51So by measuring it we can understand what is the pattern ofignorance.这里指的衡量 是我们能够明白 造成无知的规律是什么11:54We started the pilot last year,and now were pretty sure thatw