RichardSears_2010U[理查德.西尔斯][面对石油的终结时代而有所准备].pdf

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1、www.XiYuS锡育软件For the next few minutes were going to talk about energy,and its going to be a bit of a varied talk.下面的几分钟，我们将来谈论能源。并且，这将是一次有点与众不同的演讲。00:13Ill try to spin a story about energy,and oils a convenientstarting place.我将讲述一个关于能源的故事，就先从石油开始好了。00:18The talk will be broadly about energy,but oils

2、 a good placeto start.我的演说涵盖了能源的多个方面，但从石油开始讲比较好。00:22And one of the reasons is this is remarkable stuff.其中一个原因是，它的作用很了不起。00:26You take about eight or so carbon atoms,about 20hydrogen atoms,you put them together in exactly the rightway and you get this marvelous liquid:very energy-denseand very easy

3、to refine into a number of very useful productsand fuels.用八个左右的碳原子 加上二十个氢原子 以正确的方式组合，你就可以得到这瓶神奇的液体,它有巨大的能量，也很容易就可以提炼 出非常实用的产品和燃料。00:29Its great stuff.这的确是好东西。00:42Now,as far as it goes,theres a lot of oil out there in theworld.现在，就我们所知，在世界上 还有很多石油资源。00:44Heres my little pocket map of where its all l

4、ocated.这是我的小袖珍地图，上面标示了所有石油分布的地方。00:48A bigger one for you to look at.你们也可以看比较大的这一张。00:52But this is it,this is the oil in the world.就是这样，这些就是世界上石油的分布。00:54a bit of a:一点,有点,有些;相当后接名词,常指不愉快的人或事 varied:adj.多变的;各式各样的;杂色的/v.改变;使多样化(vary的过去式和过去分词形式)broadly:adv.明显地;宽广地;概括地;露骨地;粗鄙地 take about:领游览;带某人出入娱乐场所:

5、atoms:n.物原子(atom的复数)Geologists have a pretty good idea of where the oil is.地质学者们对此石油储存有很明确想法。00:56This is about 100 trillion gallons of crude oil still to bedeveloped and produced in the world today.现在全世界大约还有100万亿加仑的 原生油 还可以继续被开发和提炼。00:58Now,thats just one story about oil,and we could end itthere an

6、d say,Well,oils going to last forever because,well,theres just a lot of it.现在，关于石油的一个说法，我们也许不可能会用尽它并说，“好吧，石油没准会永远存在，因为，还有很多石油储存。”01:06But theres actually more to the story than that.但更多关于此的说法却相反。01:14Oh,by the way,if you think youre very far from some of thisoil,1000 meters below where youre all sit

7、ting is one of thelargest producing oil fields in the world.顺便说一下，如果你认为你远离一些石油储存的勘测地点，就在离我们这现场有1000米的地方 就是全世界最大石油生产地之一。01:16Come talk to me about it,Ill fill in some of the details if youwant.如果你有兴趣可以找我谈谈。我可以为你提供一些资料。01:25So,thats one of the stories of oil;theres just a lot of it.这也只是石油的一部分事实，还有很多很多

8、。01:28But what about oil?Where is it in the energy system?但究竟石油是什么？在能源体系石油起什么作用？01:31Heres a little snapshot of 150 years of oil,and its been adominant part of our energy system for most of those 150years.这是一张150年来石油在能源体系的比重图，也就是说，石油在这150年时间里，大多数是我们能源体系 的主宰者。01:36Geologists:n.地质地质学家(geologist的复数形式)t

9、rillion:n.数万亿/adj.万亿的/num.数万亿 gallons:n.加仑;大量(gallon的复数);一加仑的容器 far from:adv.远离;远非;完全不 fill in:填写;填充;替代 snapshot:n.快照,快相;急射,速射;简单印象/vt.给拍快照/vi.拍快照 dominant:adj.显性的;占优势的;支配的,统治的/n.显性Now,heres another little secret Im going to tell you about:For the last 25 years,oil has been playing less and less of

10、arole in global energy systems.现在，我要告诉各位一个小秘密。在过去25年，石油在全球能源体系中所占的比重 正在持续下降。01:44There was one kind of peak oil in 1985,when oil represented50 percent of global energy supply.在1985年石油的比重达到高峰，那时石油在全球能源供应体系中高达50%。01:55Now,its about 35 percent.现在，石油占35%。02:00Its been declining and I believe it will con

11、tinue to decline.这比重还在下降，我相信石油所占比重还会继续下降。02:02Gasoline consumption in the U.S.probably peaked in 2007and is declining.在2007年，美国的汽油消费可能到达峰值 并且开始呈下降趋势。02:06TED演讲者：Richard Sears|理查德.西尔斯演讲标题：Richard Sears:Planning for the end of oil|面对石油的终结时代而有所准备内容概要：Richard Sears thinks hard about the post-oil world.H

12、e.s a visiting scientist at MIT,after a long career as a VP at Shell.当全世界都聚焦于石油勘探危机时，我们为你呈现理查德.西尔斯在2010年2月TED上所发表的演说，他是开发新能源的专家，他认为我们必定要减少对石油的依赖，转而向什么方向发展呢?So oil is playing a less significant role every year.因此石油重要性 正在逐年下降，02:10And so,25 years ago,there was a peak oil;just like,in the1920s,there wa

13、s a peak coal;and a hundred years beforethat,there was a peak wood.大概25年前，石油峰值第一次出现，就好比1920年代 的煤炭峰值，在100年前 的木材峰值。02:15This is a very important picture of the evolution of energysystems.请看这张非常重要的能源体系发展的图片。02:27And whats been taking up the slack in the last few decades?在过去数十年，究竟是什么取代了石油的地位呢？02:30Well,

14、a lot of natural gas and a little bit of nuclear,forstarters.开始时是用大量天然气 和极少的核能。02:33declining:adj.下滑的;衰退的;倾斜的/v.下降;衰退;婉谢(decline的ing形式)peaked:adj.尖的;消瘦的;有遮檐的/v.到达高点,消瘦,竖起(peak的过去式和过去分词形式)slack:adj.松弛的;疏忽的;不流畅的/vi.松懈;减弱/n.煤末;峡谷/vt.放松;使缓慢/adv.马虎地;缓慢地 starters:n.开胃菜(starter的复数形式)And what goes on in the

15、 future?在未来会发生什么呢？02:38Well,I think out ahead of us a few decades is peak gas,andbeyond that,peak renewables.好吧，我超前想未来数十年 出现天然气峰值，甚至是，可再生能源的峰值。02:40Now,Ill tell you another little,very important story aboutthis picture.现在，我将告诉你们关于此图片另一个非常重要的事。02:49Now,Im not pretending that energy use in total isnti

16、ncreasing,it is-thats another part of the story.Come talkto me about it,well fill in some of the details-but theres avery important message here:我不是说全球能源使用量没有增加，事实上是在增加的。那又是另外一回事，来和我一起谈论这话题。我们会谈到一些具体细节。但是这有一个非常关键讯息。02:53This is 200 years of history,and for 200 years weve beensystematically decarboni

17、zing our energy system.在过去200年历史中，200多年来，我们一直在系统地使 我们能源体系脱碳。03:03Energy systems of the world becoming progressively-yearon year,decade on decade,century on century-becomingless carbon intense.日复一日，年复一年，数十年来，甚至数个世纪以来，全球能源体系正逐渐地大力地在转化成低碳能源体系。03:10And that continues into the future with the renewables

18、thatwere developing today,reaching maybe 30 percent ofprimary energy by mid century.当今我们发展了可再生能源，在未来随着它继续发展，在本世纪中叶可能占到30%的能源供应03:19Now that might be the end of the story-Okay,we justreplace it all with conventional renewables-but I think,actually,theres more to the story than that.你以为演说到这里就可以结束了吗？我们

19、仅用可重复使用的可再生能源来完全代替石油-但是我又想，现实中，比这种解决方法肯定要多得多。03:27renewables:n.可再生能源(renewable的复数)systematically:adv.有系统地;有组织地 progressively:adv.渐进地;日益增多地And to tell the next part of the story-and this is looking outsay 2100 and beyond.接下来的部分-让我们展望，2100年甚至更远。03:33What is the future of truly sustainable,carbon-free

20、energy?什么才是未来 真正可持续的，无碳的能源？03:38Well,we have to take a little excursion,and well start incentral Texas.好吧，让我们启程小游一下。我们来到得克萨斯州中部。03:42Heres a piece of limestone.这是一块石灰岩。03:46I picked it up outside of Marble Falls,Texas.我在德克萨斯州马布尔福尔斯捡到它。03:48Its about 400 million years old.它大概有4亿年历史。03:50And its just

21、limestone,nothing really special about it.它只是石灰岩，没什么特别的。03:52Now,heres a piece of chalk.现在看到的是一块粉笔。03:55I picked this up at MIT.Its a little younger.我从M.I.T(麻省理工学院)拿来的。它的历史比较短。03:57And its different than this limestone,you can see that.粉笔比起这石灰岩就有所不同。你可以看得出来。04:00You wouldnt build a building out of t

22、his stuff,and youwouldnt try to give a lecture and write on the chalkboardwith this.我们不会用粉笔来搞建筑，我们也不会在一堂讲课中用石灰岩在黑板上写字。04:02sustainable:adj.可以忍受的；足可支撑的；养得起的；可持续的 excursion:n.偏移;远足;短程旅行;离题;游览,游览团 startin:开始 limestone:n.岩石灰岩 outside of:在的外面;超出的范围 Marble:n.大理石;大理石制品;弹珠/adj.大理石的;冷酷无情的 different than:不同于

23、chalkboard:n.黑板Yeah,its very different-no,its not different.是嘛，它们的确不同。不是的，它们没什么截然不同。04:07Its not different,its the same stuff:calcium carbonate,calcium carbonate.就是没有不同，它们是同样的材料，碳酸钙，同样的碳酸钙。04:09www.XiYuS锡育软件Whats different is how the molecules are put together.有所区别的是分子排序的问题。04:14Now,if you think tha

24、ts kind of neat,the story gets reallyneat right now.如果你认为这很神奇，真正神奇的还在后头。04:17Off the coast of California comes this:Its an abalone shell.我们来谈谈在California(加利福尼亚)海岸边的 鲍鱼壳。04:23Now,millions of abalone every year make this shell.现在每年数以万计鲍鱼 自产这种壳。04:28Oh,by the way,just in case you werent already guessin

25、g,itscalcium carbonate.顺便说一下，没准你也会猜到，这也是碳酸钙。04:32Its the same stuff as this and the same stuff as this.鲍鱼壳和这石灰岩 和这粉笔都是同样的材料。04:36But its not the same stuff;its different.但它们又是完全不同的东西。04:40Its thousands of times,maybe 3,000 times tougher than this.这鲍鱼壳比这粉笔要 坚硬数千倍，甚至3000倍。04:42And why?Because the lowl

26、y abalone is able to lay down thecalcium carbonate crystals in layers,making this beautiful,iridescent mother of pearl.为什么呢？因为这些不起眼的鲍鱼 能够产出 碳酸钙晶体层 而变成这种美丽的，闪光 的珠母层。04:47calcium:n.化学钙 carbonate:vt.使充满二氧化碳;使变成碳酸盐/n.碳酸盐 molecules:n.化学分子,微粒;化学摩尔(molecule的复数)put together:.放在一起;组合;装配 abalone:n.无脊椎鲍鱼 lowly

27、:adj.卑贱的;地位低的;谦逊的/adv.谦逊地;位置低下地;低声地 lay down:放下;制定;铺设;主张 crystals:n.晶体晶体(crystal的复数形式);石英晶体 iridescent:adj.彩虹色的;闪光的Very specialized material that the abalone self-assembles,millions of abalone,all the time,every day,every year.每年中的每一天，数以万计鲍鱼自产 这种 非常特殊的材料。04:58This is pretty incredible stuff.这是非常不可思议

28、的材料。05:06All the same,whats different?尽管如此，有什么不同呢？05:08How the molecules are put together.分子如何排序在一起。05:10Now,what does this have to do with energy?那么，这又与能源有什么关系？05:12Heres a piece of coal.这是一块煤。05:15And Ill suggest that this coal is about as exciting as thischalk.这块煤就好比这块粉笔 一样 有意思。05:17Now,whether w

29、ere talking about fuels or energy carriers,orperhaps novel materials for batteries or fuel cells,naturehasnt ever built those perfect materials yet because naturedidnt need to.现在尽管我们经常谈论燃料，能源载体，或者是电池或者燃料电池的新材料时 大自然还没提供给我们这么完美的材料，因为大自然没有这个必要。05:24Nature didnt need to because,unlike the abalone shell,

30、thesurvival of a species didnt depend on building thosematerials,until maybe now when it might just matter.之所以这样是因为大自然不会像鲍鱼壳，除非到现在，只有当这种材料变得很重要，或许只有生成这种材料，各物种才会生存下来，大自然才会生成它。05:37So,when we think about the future of energy,imagine whatwould it be like if instead of this,we could build the energyequi

31、valent of this just by rearranging the moleculesdifferently.所以让我们思考一下能源的未来，想象一下 除了煤炭之外，我们可以制造出替代能源，只要把分子重新排序，那将会是什么样子？05:49specialized:adj.专业的;专门的/v.专攻(specialize的过去分词);使专门化;详细说明 All the same:仍然 have to do with:与有关 carriers:n.运送者,媒介物;运输公司(carrier复数)equivalent:adj.等价的,相等的;同意义的/n.等价物,相等物rearranging:n.

32、重排(法);重整理(技术)/v.重新安排(rearrange的ing形式)And so that is my story.这就是我要谈的。06:06The oil will never run out.石油永远不会用尽，06:08Its not because we have a lot of it.不是因为我们还有很多石油，06:10Its not because were going to build a bajillion windmills.也不是因为我们打算建数不计的风车，06:12Its because,well,thousands of years ago,people inve

33、ntedideas-they had ideas,innovations,technology-and theStone Age ended,not because we ran out of stones.而是因为 数千年前，人们搞发明，有想法，创新性，科技。石器时代的结束 不是取决于人类用完了石头。06:15(Laughter)Its ideas,its innovation,its technology that willend the age of oil,long before we run out of oil.（笑声）而是想法，创新性和科技 使得我们不会用尽石油而终结石油时代。06:29Thank you very much.非常感谢大家。06:37(Applause)（掌声）06:39run out:用完;耗尽;跑出;到期;伸向 windmills:n.动力风车(windmill的复数)/v.作风车般的传动;借风力旋转(windmill的第三人称单数)innovations:n.创新(innovation的复数);改革 innovation:n.创新,革新;新方法 run out of:用完*Warning:本文是由生成导出，请用于个人学习，不要用于商业用途。否则，导致的一切法律后果，均由您个人承担，锡育软件概不负责。*