EricBerlow_2010G[埃里克.贝娄][怎样化杂为简].pdf

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1、www.XiYuS锡育软件Do you ever feel completely overwhelmed when yourefaced with a complex problem?当你面对着一个复杂的问题时 你是否曾经觉得很不知所措？00:11Well,I hope to change that in less than three minutes.我希望能在三分钟内为此做些改变。00:16So,I hope to convince you that complex doesnt always equalcomplicated.因此,我希望说服你其实复杂 并不总是繁杂。00:19So fo

2、r me,a well-crafted baguette,fresh out of the oven,iscomplex,but a curry onion green olive poppy cheese breadis complicated.对我来说,一个刚出炉的精心烘培法国面包 是复杂的,但是咖喱绿橄榄罂粟洋葱奶酪面包 是繁杂的。00:23Im an ecologist,and I study complexity.I love complexity.我是一个生态学家,我研究复杂性,我爱复杂性。00:33And I study that in the natural world,the

3、 interconnectednessof species.我研究自然界中,物种彼此之间的关系。00:36So heres a food web,or a map of feeding links betweenspecies that live in Alpine Lakes in the mountains ofCalifornia.这是一个食物网 或者是一张食物链关联图 描述了加州高山湖的物种关系。00:39And this is what happens to that food web when its stockedwith non-native fish that never l

4、ived there before.而这是食物网现在的样子 非原生的鱼类大量涌入后00:46All the grayed-out species disappear.所有灰色的物种消失了。00:50overwhelmed:v.受打击,压倒(overwhelm的过去式);淹没/adj.受宠若惊的,使不知所措 baguette:n.法国棍子面包;成长方形的宝石 curry:vt.用咖喱烧,给加咖喱粉;梳刷;鞭打/n.咖哩粉,咖喱;咖哩饭菜 ecologist:n.生态学者 Alpine:adj.阿尔卑斯山的,高山的 stocked:n.股份,股票;库存;血统;树干/adj.存货的,常备的;平凡的/

5、vt.进货;备有;装把手于/vi.囤积;办货;出新芽non-native:adj.非本地;非原生/n.外乡人Some are actually on the brink of extinction.有些濒临绝种。00:52And lakes with fish have more mosquitoes,even though theyeat them.有鱼的湖会有更多蚊子,虽然鱼会吃蚊子。00:54These effects were all unanticipated,and yet werediscovering theyre predictable.这些影响都是预想不到的,但我们发现他们

6、是可被预测的。00:57So I want to share with you a couple key insights aboutcomplexity were learning from studying nature that maybeare applicable to other problems.所以我想要分享几个想法 关于在自然界学到的复杂性 或许可以沿用到其他问题。01:01First is the simple power of good visualization tools to helpuntangle complexity and just encourage yo

7、u to askquestions you didnt think of before.首先,视觉化工具所带来的简单力量 可以帮助我们理清复杂的关系 并且引导你思考你从未想过的问题。01:09For example,you could plot the flow of carbon throughcorporate supply chains in a corporate ecosystem,or theinterconnections of habitat patches for endangered speciesin Yosemite National Park.例如,你可以在图中找出相

8、似处 在生态系统中的一堆链接中 或在优胜美地国家公园 标出濒绝物种栖息地的关系。01:16brink:n.(峭壁的)边缘 mosquitoes:n.蚊子(mosquito的复数)unanticipated:adj.意料之外的;不曾预料到的;未预料到的predictable:adj.可预言的 insights:n.洞察力;眼力;深刻见解(insight的复数)visualization:n.形象化;清楚地呈现在心untangle:vt.清理;整顿;解开纠结 ecosystem:n.生态系统 interconnections:n.相互连接;彼此连系 habitat:n.生态栖息地,产地 patch

9、es:n.补丁;斑块(patch的复数);修补程序 endangered:adj.濒临灭绝的;有生命危险的The next thing is that if you want to predict the effect of onespecies on another,if you focus only on that link,and thenyou black box the rest,its actually less predictable其次,如果你想要预测 物种间彼此的影响,如果你只专注那个链接,你就会忽略掉其它的信息,但是你会更难做出推测01:27than if you step

10、 back,consider the entire system-all thespecies,all the links-and from that place,hone in on thesphere of influence that matters most.如果你退回上一步,纳入整个系统,包括所有物种、关联 从这里着手 把焦点集中在相关的影响范围效果会更好。01:37And were discovering,with our research,thats often verylocal to the node you care about within one or two degr

11、ees.而我们在研究中发现 人们通常只关注非常靠近目标附近的一些内容 一到两层左右。01:44So the more you step back,embrace complexity,the betterchance you have of finding simple answers,and its oftendifferent than the simple answer that you started with.所以你退的越多,并广纳复杂,你就越有机会找到简单的答案,而且是和你起先着手的简单答案不同。01:50TED演讲者：Eric Berlow|埃里克.贝娄演讲标题：Eric Ber

12、low:How complexity leads to simplicity|怎样化杂为简内容概要：TED Senior Fellow Eric Berlow studies ecology and networks,exposing theinterconnectedness of our ecosystems with climate change,government,corporations andmore.生态学家埃里克.贝娄Eric Berlow面临复杂系统时，一向都从容以对。他知道如何运用更多讯息，找出更好更简单的解答，并以图解说明解决难题的技巧。他化杂为简，将美国对抗阿富汗的策

13、略的复杂资料图表浓缩成几个要点。So lets switch gears and look at a really complex problemcourtesy of the U.S.government.现在换个角度,用美国政府来看 真正复杂的问题。01:58This is a diagram of the U.S.counterinsurgency strategy inAfghanistan.这是美国对阿富汗镇暴策略的示意图。02:04It was front page of the New York Times a couple monthsago.几个月前出现在纽约时报头版02:0

14、7step back:后退,退后;无意义 hone:n.磨刀石;想念;抱怨/vt.用磨刀石磨 different than:不同于 gears:n.机齿轮,机传动装置(gear的复数形式)/v.以齿轮连起,安排(gear的三单形式)counterinsurgency:n.反暴动;镇压叛乱;反破坏Instantly ridiculed by the media for being so crazycomplicated.马上被媒体嘲笑着 因为这张图表实在是太过复杂。02:10And the stated goal was to increase popular support for theAf

15、ghan government.而他们的目标是为了要得到声援 对阿富汗政权的声援。02:14Clearly a complex problem,but is it complicated?这很明显的是个复杂的问题,但它繁杂吗？02:18Well,when I saw this in the front page of the Times,Ithought,Great.Finally something I can relate to.我看到报纸的这篇头版时,我心里想着,“太好了,总算有类似的东西了。02:22I can sink my teeth into this.我可以拿出来大讲特讲。”0

16、2:26So lets do it.So here we go for the first time ever,a worldpremiere view of this spaghetti diagram as an orderednetwork.来吧,全世界有史以来第一次 要把错综复杂的图表变成有条理的关系图。02:28The circled node is the one were trying to influence-popular support for the government.圈起来的症结点是我们试图想要去影响 对政府的支持声浪。02:34And so now we can

17、look one degrees,two degrees,threedegrees away from that node and eliminate three-quartersof the diagram outside that sphere of influence.因此,我们可以看,第一层,第二层 第三层与结点间的关系 然后去除图表中的四分之三没有在范围里的影响。02:38Within that sphere,most of those nodes are not actionable,like the harshness of the terrain,and a very smal

18、l minorityare actual military actions.在这个范围中 大部分的结点是不可动的,如险峻的地势 少数是军事行动。02:45ridiculed:vt.嘲笑;嘲弄;愚弄/n.嘲笑;笑柄;愚弄 stated:adj.规定的;阐明的;定期的/v.规定(state的过去分词);陈述;阐明 relateto:涉及,有关 premiere:adj.首位的;初次的;女主角的/vi.初次公演;首次露面/vt.初次公演;初次上演/n.初次的演出;女主角spaghetti:n.意大利式细面条 circled:adj.包围的,圆圈的/v.环绕;包围(circle的过去分词)three-

19、quarters:adj.四分之三的/n.四分之三 actionable:adj.可控告的;可提起诉讼的 terrain:n.地理地形,地势;领域;地带Most are non-violent and they fall into two broadcategories:active engagement with ethnic rivalries andreligious beliefs and fair,transparent economic developmentand provisioning of services.大部分是非暴力的,并且可分为两大类别:道德抗争与宗教信条的激烈交战

20、 与公平、透明的经济发展和供应服务。02:53I dont know about this,but this is what I can decipher fromthis diagram in 24 seconds.我不知道这些是什么,可是我能在24秒内通过图表分析出这些东西。03:04When you see a diagram like this,I dont want you to beafraid.当你看到一个像这样的图表,你不需要感到害怕。03:09I want you to be excited.I want you to be relieved.我要你觉得开心,感到松了一口气。

21、03:11Because simple answers may emerge.因为简单的答案会浮现。03:14Were discovering in nature that simplicity often lies on theother side of complexity.我们发现在自然界里,复杂的反面 其实就是简单03:16So for any problem,the more you can zoom out andembrace complexity,the better chance you have of zoomingin on the simple details that

22、 matter most.所以对任何问题,你越是往后退,涵盖复杂,你越是有机会聚焦 在重要的简单的细节上。03:20Thank you.感谢各位。03:27(Applause)(鼓掌)03:29non-violent:adj.非暴力的 fall into:落入;分成 ethnic:adj.种族的;人种的 rivalries:n.竞争(rivalry的复数);对手 religious:adj.宗教的；虔诚的；严谨的；修道的/n.修道士；尼姑 provisioning:n.准备金提取/v.供应补给品(provision的ing形式)decipher:n.密电译文/vt.解释 zooming:n.动能攒升/adj.迅速上升的/v.猛增;冲天而起(zoom的ing形式)*Warning:本文是由生成导出，请用于个人学习，不要用于商业用途。否则，导致的一切法律后果，均由您个人承担，锡育软件概不负责。*