PeterDiamandis_2012[彼得.迪曼蒂斯][我们的未来将会是富足的].pdf

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1、www.XiYuS锡育软件(Applause)鼓掌00:12(Video)Announcer:Threats,in the wake of Bin Ladensdeath,have spiked.（视频）播音员:在本拉登被击毙后,恐怖威胁数量激增。00:15Announcer Two:Famine in Somalia.Announcer Three:Policepepper spray.播音员2:索马里出现饥荒。播音员3:警察使用胡椒喷雾。00:18Announcer Four:Vicious cartels.Announcer Five:Causticcruise lines.播音员4:凶

2、恶的毒枭。播音员5:破裂的游轮。00:20Announcer Six:Societal decay.Announcer Seven:65 dead.播音员6:社会风气败坏。播音员7:65人死亡。00:22Announcer Eight:Tsunami warning.Announcer Nine:Cyber-attacks.播音员8:海啸警告。播音员9:网络攻击。00:25Multiple Announcers:Drug war.Mass destruction.Tornado.多位播音员:毒品战争、大规模破坏、飓风、00:27Recession.Default.Doomsday.Egypt.

3、Syria.经济衰退、违约、末日、埃及、叙利亚、00:29Crisis.Death.Disaster.危机、死亡、灾难。00:31Oh,my God.哦我的天哪！00:33Announcer:n.广播广播员;宣告者 in the wake of:紧紧跟随;随着而来;作为的结果;仿效 Bin:n.箱子,容器;二进制/vt.把放入箱中 Laden:adj.负载的;装满的;苦恼的/vt.装载(等于lade)/vi.装载(等于lade)/v.装载(lade的过去分词)spiked:adj.尖的;有穗的;加入标准的 Vicious:adj.恶毒的；恶意的；堕落的；有错误的；品性不端的；剧烈的/carte

4、ls:n.卡特尔;联合企业(cartel的复数)Caustic:adj.化学腐蚀性的;化学苛性的;刻薄的;焦散的/n.助剂腐蚀剂;苛性钠;焦散曲线 Societal:adj.社会的 Tsunami:n.海啸 Announcers:n.广播广播员;宣告者 Tornado:n.气象龙卷风;旋风;暴风;大雷雨 Doomsday:n.世界末日;最后的审判日Peter Diamandis:So those are just a few of the clips Icollected over the last six months-could have easily beenthe last six d

5、ays or the last six years.彼得迪曼蒂斯:这是我在过去6个月里 收集的一些视频。如果是在6天,或者过去6年里 也是可以收集到一样的片段。00:36The point is that the news media preferentially feeds usnegative stories because thats what our minds pay attentionto.重点是新闻媒体倾向于 向我们输送负面信息。因为我们的大脑特别容易关注这些。00:44And theres a very good reason for that.当然这是有个很好的原因。00:5

6、2Every second of every day,our senses bring in way too muchdata than we can possibly process in our brains.每时每刻,我们的“传感器”收集太多的信息 多到我们的大脑处理不过来。00:54And because nothing is more important to us than survival,the first stop of all of that data is an ancient sliver of thetemporal lobe called the amygdala.

7、而其中对我们最重要的 就是生存。所有信息输入的第一站就是 颞叶上一个叫做大脑扁桃体的 非常原始的部分01:01Now the amygdala is our early warning detector,our dangerdetector.大脑扁桃体是我们的早期预警侦测器,危险探测仪。01:11It sorts and scours through all of the information looking foranything in the environment that might harm us.它将所有信息分类并仔细查阅 寻找环境种任何可能伤害我们的事物。01:16clips:

8、n.夹子;回形针(clip的复数);弹片;剪下来的东西/v.夹住;紧缠;围绕(clip的第三人称单数)preferentially:adv.优先地;优惠地 feeds:n.畜牧饲料;一餐(feed的复数)/v.提供(feed的第三人称单数形式);饲养 sliver:n.梳毛,梳棉;裂片/vi.成为薄片;裂成小片/vt.使成薄片;使裂成小片 temporal:adj.暂时的;当时的;现世的/n.世间万物;暂存的事物 lobe:n.(脑,肺等的)叶;裂片;耳垂;波瓣 amygdala:n.解剖杏仁核;扁桃腺;苦巴旦杏 detector:n.探测器;检测器;发现者;侦察器 scours:n.家畜腹泻

9、病So given a dozen news stories,we will preferentially look atthe negative news.所以一看报纸,我们就会自动偏向 各种负面信息。01:22And that old newspaper saying,If it bleeds it leads,以前还有份报纸上写到:”流血事件必上头条。“01:28is very true.是很有道理的。01:32So given all of our digital devices that are bringing all thenegative news to us seven da

10、ys a week,24 hours a day,itsno wonder that were pessimistic.现在我们有各种数字化设备,无时无刻地为我们 带来各种负面新闻。难怪我们都这么悲观。01:34Its no wonder that people think that the world is gettingworse.难怪人们觉得 世界在倒退。01:44TED演讲者：Peter Diamandis|彼得.迪曼蒂斯演讲标题：Peter Diamandis:Abundance is our future|我们的未来将会是富足的内容概要：Peter Diamandis runs t

11、he X Prize Foundation,which offers large cash incentive prizesto inventors who can solve grand challenges like space flight,low-cost mobile medicaldiagnostics and oil spill cleanup.He is the chair of Singularity University,which teachesexecutives and grad students about exponentially growing technol

12、ogies.在TED2012的讲台上，彼得迪曼蒂斯解释保持乐观的理由我们会发明，创新以及创造新的方法来解决目前面临的种种挑战。“我的意思不是说这些问题不存在，但最终，我们会消除它们。“But perhaps thats not the case.但事实不一定如此。01:50Perhaps instead,its the distortions brought to us of whatsreally going on.或者相反地,我们所接受的信息 是被扭曲的。01:53Perhaps the tremendous progress weve made over the lastcentury

13、by a series of forces are,in fact,accelerating to apoint that we have the potential in the next three decades tocreate a world of abundance.或许我们的社会在上一个世纪 一系列事件的影响下 所经历的巨大的进步 正在不断加速,这加速度令我们未来三十年中,拥有创造一个富足世界的可能性。02:00Now Im not saying we dont have our set of problems-climate crisis,species extinction,

14、water and energy shortage-we surely do.我并不是说 这些问题不存在 气候危机,物种灭绝,水资源和能源短缺的情况都实际存在。02:15bleeds:v.印刷出血(bleed的第三人称单数);感到疼痛/n.出血版;活门;细管(bleed的复数)no wonder:难怪 distortions:n.物畸变,力扭曲(distortion的复数)tremendous:adj.极大的，巨大的；惊人的；极好的 accelerating:adj.促进的,物加速的;催化的And as humans,we are far better at seeing the proble

15、ms wayin advance,but ultimately we knock them down.作为人类,我们太擅长对危机做各种预估 问题最出各种预估 但最终我们会消除它们。02:24So lets look at what this last century has been to see wherewere going.我们来回顾下 上个世纪发生了什么 来了解过去的几百年里02:33Over the last hundred years,the average human lifespan hasmore than doubled,average per capita income

16、adjusted forinflation around the world has tripled.我们正向什么方向在前进。人类的平均寿命增加了2倍以上,经过通货膨胀调整计算,全世界的人均收入 增加了3倍。02:39Childhood mortality has come down a factor of 10.婴儿死亡率 下降了10倍。02:49Add to that the cost of food,electricity,transportation,communication have dropped 10 to 1,000-fold.食品、用电、交通、通信的成本 下降了10倍到10

17、00倍不等。02:53Steve Pinker has showed us that,in fact,were living duringthe most peaceful time ever in human history.Steve Pinker为我们指明 实际上我们正生活在人类历史上 最和平的时代。03:01还有Charles Kenny也指出 世界范围的识字率在过去的130年里从25 上升到了80。03:08We truly are living in an extraordinary time.我们的的确确是生活在一个伟大的时代。03:16And many people forge

18、t this.然而许多人忘记了这点。03:20And we keep setting our expectations higher and higher.我们不断地把期待定的越来越高。03:22In fact,we redefine what poverty means.其实我们重新定义了贫困的涵义。03:25in advance:adv.预先,提前 lifespan:n.寿命;预期生命期限;预期使用期限 capita:n.头数(尤指牲口)adjusted:adj.调整过的,调节了的/v.调整;校正(adjust的过去分词)tripled:adj.三倍的;三方的/n.三倍数;三个一组/vi.

19、增至三倍/vt.使成三倍mortality:n.死亡数,死亡率;必死性,必死的命运 redefine:vt.重新定义Think of this,in America today,the majority of people underthe poverty line still have electricity,water,toilets,refrigerators,television,mobile phones,air conditioning andcars.想一下,在今天的美国 大部分生活在贫困线下的人仍然拥有电力,饮用水,厕所,冰箱,电视,行动电话,空调和汽车。03:28The we

20、althiest robber barons of the last century,theemperors on this planet,could have never dreamed of suchluxuries.上世纪最富有的强盗大亨,这个星球上的帝王们,永远都想象不到这样的奢侈生活。03:41Underpinning much of this is technology,and of late,exponentially growing technologies.这一切的基础 是科技 以及 指数式增长的科技。03:50My good friend Ray Kurzweil show

21、ed that any tool thatbecomes an information technology jumps on this curve,onMoores Law,and experiences price performance doublingevery 12 to 24 months.我的好朋友 Ray Kurzweil 展示了任何信息科技的工具 都遵从这条曲线,即摩尔定律。并经历每12到24个月 性价比翻一倍的增长。03:59Thats why the cellphone in your pocket is literally a milliontimes cheaper

22、and a thousand times faster than asupercomputer of the 70s.这就是为什么你口袋里的行动电话 的确相比比70年代的超级电脑要便宜了 100万倍而且还要快1000倍04:12toilets:n.建厕所;洗手间;坐便器(toilet的复数)/v.上厕所(toilet的三单形式);梳妆 refrigerators:n.制冷冰箱,制冷冷藏室;制冷冷冻库(refrigerator的复数)wealthiest:富有的(wealthy的最高级)robber:n.强盗;盗贼 barons:n.男爵(baron复数)luxuries:n.奢侈品(luxur

23、y的复数形式)Underpinning:n.基础,基础材料;矿业支柱,支承结构;支撑 of late:adv.最近;近来 exponentially:adv.以指数方式 doubling:n.加倍;并线;折回;防护板;衬里/v.使加倍;使成双(double的ing形式);绕过;握紧/adj.双重的;折叠的 cellphone:n.蜂窝式便携无线电话;大哥大 supercomputer:n.计巨型计算机,超级计算机Now look at this curve.再看这个曲线。04:18This is Moores Law over the last hundred years.这式过去几百年里的摩

24、尔定律。04:20I want you to notice two things from this curve.我想要大家注意这曲线上的2个地方04:22Number one,how smooth it is-through good time and badtime,war time and peace time,recession,depression andboom time.第一,就是它非常的平滑 无论是好的时代还是不好的时代,战争或和平,经济衰退或增长。04:24This is the result of faster computers being used to buildfa

25、ster computers.这是因为更快的电脑被用来制造 更更快的电脑所产生的结果。04:34faster computers.It doesnt slow for any of our grand challenges.它不会因为我们面临的巨大挑战所延缓。04:39And also,even though its plotted on a log curve on the left,its curving upwards.04:43The rate at which the technology is getting faster is itselfgetting faster.04:49

26、www.XiYuS锡育软件And on this curve,riding on Moores Law,are a set ofextraordinarily powerful technologies available to all of us.在这摩尔定律的曲线上 是一系列强大的科技 对所有人都开放。04:54Cloud computing,what my friends at Autodesk call infinitecomputing;sensors and networks;robotics;3D printing,which is the ability to democrat

27、ize and distributepersonalized production around the planet;syntheticbiology;fuels,vaccines and foods;digital medicine;nanomaterials;and A.I.云计算,我在Autodesk公司的朋友称之为无限计算;传感器和网络,机器人;3D打印,让我们获得在全世界范围普及和部署 个人化的生产的能力 人造生命;带来新的燃料,疫苗和食物;数字化医药;纳米材料和人工智能05:02depression:n.沮丧;洼地;不景气;忧愁 curving:adj.弯曲的/n.弯曲;曲线;变

28、形/v.使弯曲;弯成弧形(curve的ing形式)upwards:adv.向上;在上部;向上游 extraordinarily:adv.非常;格外地;非凡地 sensors:n.自传感器,感应器;感测器(sensor的复数)democratize:vt.使民主化;使大众化/vi.民主化;大众化 personalized:adj.个性化的;个人化的/v.个性化(personalize的过去式);个人化 synthetic:adj.综合的;合成的,人造的/n.合成物 vaccines:n.药计疫苗I mean,how many of you saw the winning of Jeopardy

29、byIBMs Watson?观众中多少人看到了IBM的Watson超级电脑在Jeopardy智力竞赛的胜出05:22I mean,that was epic.那真是太伟大了。05:27In fact,I scoured the headlines looking for the best headlinein a newspaper I could.我查看各种报纸的新闻头条 找到我觉得最好的05:30And I love this:Watson Vanquishes Human Opponents.我喜欢这句:Watson征服人类对手05:34Jeopardys not an easy gam

30、e.Jeopardy不是个容易的比赛。05:39Its about the nuance of human language.获胜关键在于理解人类语言中的微妙细节05:41And imagine if you would A.I.s like this on the cloudavailable to every person with a cellphone.你可以想象一下 像这样的人工智能存在于云计算中 所有拥有行动电话的人都可以使用的景象。05:44Four years ago here at TED,Ray Kurzweil and I started a newuniversity

31、called Singularity University.四年前在TED,Ray Kurzweil和我创立了一所新的叫做奇点大学05:51And we teach our students all of these technologies,andparticularly how they can be used to solve humanitys grandchallenges.我们教给学生各种科技 特别是如何利用这些科技来解决人类面临的巨大挑战05:57And every year we ask them to start a company or a productor a serv

32、ice that can affect positively the lives of a billionpeople within a decade.每一年我们都要求学生 创立一件公司或制作一种产品或者提供一项服务 能在十年内对十亿人的生活产生积极而实际的影响06:05Jeopardy:n.危险;(被告处于被判罪或受处罚的)危险境地 epic:adj.史诗的,叙事诗的/n.史诗;叙事诗;史诗般的作品 scoured:v.擦洗;腐蚀;摩擦(scour的过去式)for the best:出于好意 Opponents:n.对手(opponent的复数形式)nuance:n.细微差别Singular

33、ity:n.奇异;奇点;突出;稀有 positively:adv.肯定地;明确地;断然地Think about that,the fact that,literally,a group of studentscan touch the lives of a billion people today.想象一下一群学生 今天可以影响到十亿人的生活06:1530 years ago that would have sounded ludicrous.30年前这听起来非常可笑06:21Today we can point at dozens of companies that have donejus

34、t that.今天我们可以列举出几十间有这样成就的公司06:23When I think about creating abundance,its not aboutcreating a life of luxury for everybody on this planet;itsabout creating a life of possibility.当我思考创造富足社会的时候 并不是为地球上的每一个人创造奢华的生活 而是创造充满可能性的生活06:28It is about taking that which was scarce and making itabundant.是把原先稀缺的资

35、源 变得充沛06:40You see,scarcity is contextual,and technology is a resource-liberating force.稀缺性是相对的 而科技是一股解放资源的力量06:45Let me give you an example.让我来举一个例子06:53So this is a story of Napoleon III in the mid-1800s.这是一个拿破仑三世的故事 在1800到1810年中期06:56Hes the dude on the left.他是左边这位07:00He invited over to dinner t

36、he king of Siam.邀请了泰国国王共进晚餐07:03All of Napoleons troops were fed with silver utensils,Napoleon himself with gold utensils.所有拿破仑的士兵使用银器用餐 拿破仑自己用金器用餐07:07ludicrous:adj.滑稽的;荒唐的 point at:指向 scarcity:n.不足;缺乏 contextual:adj.上下文的;前后关系的 dude:n.男人,小伙子/n.(Dude)人名;(德,塞)杜德/n.(非正式)花花公子;纨绔子弟 utensils:n.餐具;轻器具;炊具(

37、utensil的复数)But the King of Siam,he was fed with aluminum utensils.但是泰国国王 使用铝制的餐具07:14You see,aluminum was the most valuable metal on theplanet,worth more than gold and platinum.你想。铝 曾经是世界上最贵重的金属 比黄金和白金还要昂贵07:18Its the reason that the tip of the Washington Monument ismade of aluminum.这就是为什么华盛顿纪念碑的顶端是

38、铝制的07:26You see,even though aluminum is 8.3 percent of the Earth bymass,it doesnt come as a pure metal.即使铝占了地球总量的8.3%因为它不是以纯金属的形态存在07:31Its all bound by oxygen and silicates.都是和氧或者硅酸结合07:38But then the technology of electrolysis came along andliterally made aluminum so cheap that we use it with thro

39、w-away mentality.但是随后出现了电解技术 使得铝的价格如此低廉以致我们就把铝制品当一次性用品般看待07:41So lets project this analogy going forward.我们把这个比喻应用到其他方面07:50We think about energy scarcity.当我们一想到能源短缺07:54Ladies and gentlemen,we are on a planet that is bathed with5,000 times more energy than we use in a year.女士们先生们 我们生活在这个星球上 接受着相当于我

40、们年平均能源消耗5000多倍的能量07:5616 terawatts of energy hits the Earths surface every 88minutes.每88分钟有16太瓦的能源投向地球表面08:06aluminum:n.铝 platinum:n.化学铂;白金;唱片集达100万张的销售量;银灰色/adj.唱片集已售出100万张的 electrolysis:n.化学电解,化学电解作用;以电针除痣 mentality:n.心态；心理智力；精神力；头脑作用 analogy:n.类比；类推；类似bathed:adj.沐浴的;淋漓的,湿透的;沉溺的/v.沐浴(bath的过去分词)ter

41、awatts:n.太(拉)物瓦;兆兆瓦Its not about being scarce,its about accessibility.问题并不是能源稀缺 而是可及性08:12And theres good news here.现在有好消息08:16For the first time,this year the cost of solar-generatedelectricity is 50 percent that of diesel-generated electricity inIndia-8.8 rupees versus 17 rupees.今年是有史以来第一次 在印度,太阳能

42、发电的成本将抵至化石燃料发电成本的一半 8.8卢布相比较17卢布08:18The cost of solar dropped 50 percent last year.去年太阳能发电的成本降低了一半08:30Last month,MIT put out a study showing that by the end ofthis decade,in the sunny parts of the United States,solarelectricity will be six cents a kilowatt hour compared to 15cents as a national av

43、erage.上个月,MIT发布了一个研究报告 显示到2020年 在美国阳光充足的地区 太阳能电力费用会降至6美分一千瓦小时 而现在全国平均标准是15美分08:32And if we have abundant energy,we also have abundantwater.如果我们有充足的能源,还有丰富的洁净水08:44Now we talk about water wars.我们来聊下水的战争08:50Do you remember when Carl Sagan turned the Voyagerspacecraft back towards the Earth,in 1990 af

44、ter it just passedSaturn?还记得嘛 当Carl Saga当航海者太空飞船经过土星的时候,调转方向面对地球08:55He took a famous photo.What was it called?拍下了一幅著名的照片,叫什么名字？09:03accessibility:n.易接近;可亲;可以得到 rupees:n.卢比(rupee复数)versus:prep.对；与.相对；对抗 put out:熄灭;伸出;出版;使不方便,打扰 kilowatt:n.电千瓦(功率单位)Voyager:n.航海者,航行者A Pale Blue Dot.”淡蓝色的小点。“09:06Becau

45、se we live on a water planet.因为我们生活在一颗 水行星 上09:08We live on a planet 70 percent covered by water.地球表面70被水覆盖09:11Yes,97.5 percent is saltwater,two percent is ice,and we fightover a half a percent of the water on this planet,but here toothere is hope.是的,97.5是海水 2%是冰山,我们则在争夺世界上1.5%的水资源 但我们仍然有希望09:14And

46、 there is technology coming online,not 10,20 years fromnow,right now.有一项科技正 并不是未来的10年20年以后 就是现在09:23Theres nanotechnology coming on,nanomaterials.有一种纳米科技09:30And the conversation I had with Dean Kamen this morning,one of the great DIY innovators,Id like to share with you-he gave me permission to do

47、so-his technology calledSlingshot that many of you may have heard of,it is the sizeof a small dorm room refrigerator.09:33Its able to generate a thousand liters of clean drinking watera day out of any source-saltwater,polluted water,latrine-at less than two cents a liter.09:47Pale:adj.苍白的;无力的;暗淡的/n.

48、前哨;栅栏;范围/vt.使失色;使变苍白;用栅栏围/vi.失色;变苍白;变得暗淡 saltwater:adj.盐水的;海产的 nanotechnology:n.纳米技术 Dean:n.院长;系主任;教务长;主持牧师 innovators:n.创新者;发明家签证;革新消费者(innovator的复数形式)Slingshot:n.弹弓 liters:计量公升 polluted:adj.受污染的;被玷污的/v.污染(pollute的过去式和过去分词)latrine:n.公共厕所The chairman of Coca-Cola has just agreed to do a major testof

49、 hundreds of units of this in the developing world.09:59And if that pans out,which I have every confidence it will,10:06And if that pans out,which I have every confidence it will,Coca-Cola will deploy this globally to 206 countries aroundthe planet.This is the kind of innovation,empowered by thistec

50、hnology,that exists today.10:16And weve seen this in cellphones.10:23My goodness,were going to hit 70 percent penetration ofcellphones in the developing world by the end of 2013.10:25Think about it,that a Masai warrior on a cellphone in themiddle of Kenya has better mobile comm than PresidentReagan