SendhilMullainathan_2009I[森德希尔 穆拉伊特丹][社会问题的最后一英里].pdf

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1、www.XiYuS锡育软件As a researcher,every once in a while,you encountersomething a little disconcerting.作为一个搞研究的人 时不时会遇到一些 令人不安的问题00:12And this is something that changes your understanding ofthe world around you,and teaches you that youre verywrong about something that you really believed firmly in.这些问题可以改

2、变你对周围世界的认识 让你认识到 之前所深信的看法 其实存在很大的谬误00:19And these are unfortunate moments,because you go tosleep that night dumber than when you woke up.这些都是不幸的时刻 因为你在那晚入睡时 要比在早上起床时来得无知00:28So,thats really the goal of my talk,is to A,communicate themoment to you,and B,have you leave this session a littledumber than

3、 when you entered.这也正是我本次演讲的目标 第一 相互交流各自的体会 第二 让你们在离开会场时 比你们进来时更加无知一点00:36So,I hope I can really accomplish that.希望我能达到这两点目标00:44So,this incident that Im going to describe really began withsome diarrhea.我要讲的这个问题 要从痢疾开始00:47Now,weve known for a long time,the cause of diarrhea.我们对痢疾的病因已经很熟悉00:53Thats

4、why there is a glass of water up there.所以我放了一杯水的照片在那00:56For us,its a problem,the people in this room,for babies,itsdeadly.对在座的各位来说 这是个麻烦 对婴儿来说 这是致命的00:59once in a while:偶尔;有时(等于everyonceinawhile)disconcerting:adj.令人不安的;打扰人的 firmly:adv.坚定地,坚决地;坚固地,稳固地 diarrhea:n.腹泻,痢疾They lack nutrients,and diarrhea

5、 dehydrates them.他们缺乏营养 痢疾会导致脱水01:04And so,as a result,there is a lot of death,a lot of death.因此 会有很多人夭折 很多人夭折01:08In India in 1960,there was a 24 percent child mortality rate,lots of people didnt make it.Incredibly unfortunate.在1960年的印度 新生儿的死亡率达到24%很多还能没能挺过去 实在是很不幸01:13One of the big reasons this h

6、appened was because ofdiarrhea.很重要的一个原因 就是痢疾01:21Now,there was a big effort to solve this problem.目前 人类已对痢疾的疗法付出了很大努力01:25And there was actually a big solution.也出现了很有效的疗法01:28And this solution has been called,by some,Potentially themost important medical advance this century.这种疗法被某些人称为 本世纪最重要的 医学突破0

7、1:32Now,the solution turned out to be simple.疗法其实很简单01:39And what it was was oral rehydration salts.就是口服补液盐01:42Many of you have probably used this.很多人用过这种方法01:46Its brilliant.Its a way to get sodium and glucose togetherso that when you add it to water the child is able to absorb iteven during situa

8、tions of diarrhea.这是个天才般的想法 可以让钠和葡萄糖混合在一起 掺上水之后 婴儿即使在身患痢疾时也能吸收养分01:48nutrients:营养盐/食品营养素 dehydrates:vt.使脱水;使极其口渴;使丧失力量和兴趣等/vi.脱水;去水 mortality:n.死亡数,死亡率;必死性,必死的命运 Potentially:adv.可能地,潜在地 rehydration:n.再水化;再水合 sodium:n.化学钠(11号元素,符号Na)glucose:n.葡萄糖;葡糖(等于dextrose)Remarkable impact on mortality.有效的减少了死亡率

9、01:56Massive solution to the problem.很好的治疗了痢疾02:00Flash forward,1960,24 percent child mortality has droppedhas dropped to 6.5 percent today.婴儿死亡率从1960年的24%下降到如今的6.5%02:02Still a big number,but a big drop.比例仍较高 但已经降了很多02:07It looks like the technological problem is solved.看上去技术上的问题已解决02:10But,if you

10、look,even today there are about 400,000diarrhea-related deaths in India alone.但直到如今 光是在印度 每年就有40万 痢疾相关的死亡02:13Whats going on here?这又是怎么回事?02:19Well the easy answer is,we just havent gotten those salts tothose people.你可以说 我们没有给他们提供 口服补液盐02:21Thats actually not true.事实上不是这样02:26If you look in areas wh

11、ere these salts are completely availablethe price is low or zero,these deaths still continue abated.在这些地方 口服补液盐完全可以买到 价格很低 甚至是免费的 但死亡还在发生02:28Maybe there is a biological answer.也许有生理上的原因02:34TED演讲者：Sendhil Mullainathan|森德希尔 穆拉伊特丹演讲标题：Sendhil Mullainathan:Solving social problems with a nudge|社会问题的最后一

12、英里内容概要：Sendhil Mullainathan asks a compelling question:what are the irrational choices wemake that perpetuate poverty,corruption,discrimination?麦克阿瑟奖获得者森德希尔 穆拉伊特丹用行为经济学的眼光剖析了一个棘手的社会问题:有办法解决却还是无法解决。我们知道怎样减少痢疾患儿的死亡率，怎样预防因糖尿病引起的失明，怎样实现太阳能电池技术.但却没有有效实现。为什么?Maybe these are the deaths that simple rehydrat

13、ion alonedoesnt solve.Thats not true either.也许单靠再水合的方法 无法挽救这些生命 但这也不是事实02:36Many of these deaths were completely preventable.很多死亡是完全可以避免的02:41Flash forward:提前叙述未来事件 abated:vt.减轻;减少;废除/vi.减轻;失效 preventable:adj.可预防的;可阻止的;可防止的And this what I want to think of as the disconcerting thing,what I want to ca

14、ll the last mile problem.这就是令我感到不安的问题 我称之为 最后一英里问题02:46You see,we spent a lot of energy,in many domains.我们在各个领域消耗了很多的资源02:51Technological,scientific,hard work,creativity,humaningenuity,to crack important social problems withtechnology solutions.利用技术 科学手段 通过人类的汗水 灵巧 创造力用技术手段攻克了许多重大社会问题02:55Thats been

15、 the discoveries of the last 2,000 years.2000年以来都是如此03:03Thats mankind moving forward.人类因此不断向前进03:05But in this case we cracked it,but a big part of the problemstill remains.尽管攻克了很多难关 但还有很多问题依然存在03:07999 miles went well.前面的999英里都走得很好03:12The last mile is proving incredibly stubborn.最好一英里显得异常艰难03:14N

16、ow,thats for oral rehydration therapy.口服补液疗法就是如此03:17Maybe this is something unique about diarrhea.也许痢疾只是一个特例03:21Well,it turns out,and this is where things get reallydisconcerting,its not unique to diarrhea.但事实上 痢疾不是特例 这样问题就变得令人不安了03:23Its not even unique to poor people in India.甚至印度的穷人也不是特例03:27He

17、res an example from a variety of contexts.这是从很多文献中找到的一个例子03:29ingenuity:n.心灵手巧,独创性;精巧;精巧的装置 stubborn:adj.顽固的；顽强的；难处理的 therapy:n.治疗，疗法contexts:n.环境,计上下文(context复数)Ive put up a bunch of examples up here.我在这列举了很多例子03:32Ill start with insulin,diabetes medication in the U.S.我从美国治疗糖尿病的 胰岛素说起03:34Okay,the

18、American population.对美国人来说03:39On Medicaid if youre fairly poor you get medicaid,or if youhave health insurance,insulin is pretty straightforward.如果你很穷或者你有医疗保险 就能得到医疗补助胰岛素很好用03:41You get it,either in pill form or you get it as an injection.可通过药片或注射使用03:45www.XiYuS锡育软件You have to take it every day to

19、 maintain your blood sugarlevels.每天都要服用 以保持血糖水平03:49Massive technological advance,took an incredibly deadlydisease,made it solvable.这是巨大的技术进步 让致命的疾病变得可治愈03:51Adherence rates.How many people are taking their insulinevery day?看看相关的数据 每天有多少人服用胰岛素?03:55About on average,a typical person is taking it 75 p

20、ercent ofthe time.平均每人服用的概率是75%03:58As a result,25,000 people a year go blind,hundreds ofthousands lose limbs,every year,for something thatssolvable.结果就是 每年有2万5千人失明 数十万人截肢 而这个病是可治愈的04:02a bunch of:一群;一束;一堆 insulin:n.生化药胰岛素 diabetes:n.糖尿病;多尿症 Medicaid:n.(美)医疗补助计划solvable:adj.可以解决的;可以解的;可溶的 Adherence:

21、n.坚持;依附;忠诚 limbs:n.解剖四肢(limb的复数)Here I have a bunch of other examples,all suffer from thelast mile problem.我还能举很多其他的例子 他们都存在最后一英里的问题04:11Its not just medicine.不仅仅在医学上04:15Here is another example from technology.这是另一个来自于技术革新的例子04:17Agriculture.We think there is a food problem,so we createnew seeds.农业

22、 我们认为 存在食物问题 所以发明了新型的种子04:19We think there is an income problem,so we create new waysof farming that increase income.我们认为存在产量的问题 因此创造了 增加产量的新方法04:23Well,look at some old ways,some ways that wed alreadycracked.我们来看看那些已经实现的老方法04:28Intercropping.Intercropping really increases income.间作 间作确实能增加产量04:31So

23、metimes in rice we found incredible increases in yieldwhen you mix different varieties of rice side by side.有时 通过混合不同种类的水稻 可以得到惊人的常量04:33Some people are doing that,many are not.Whats going on?有些人这么做了 有些人没有 为什么会这样?04:38This is the last mile.这就是最后一英里04:42The last mile is,everywhere,problematic.最后一英里的问

24、题 无处不在 难以攻克04:44Alright,whats the problem?问题出在哪?04:46The problem is this little three-pound machine thats behindyour eyes and between your ears.问题就处在这个3磅重的小机器上 它位于你的眼后两耳之间04:48suffer from:忍受,遭受;患病;受之苦 varieties:n.品种;种类(variety的复数);变种 side by side:并肩;一起;并排problematic:adj.问题的;有疑问的;不确定的This machine is

25、really strange,and one of the consequencesis that people are weird.这台机器很奇怪 结果是 人类也很奇怪04:55They do lots of inconsistent things.做了很多自相矛盾的事05:01(Applause)They do lots of inconsistent things.(鼓掌)人做了很多自相矛盾的事05:05And the inconsistencies create,fundamentally,this last mileproblem.这些自相矛盾 从根本上导致了最后一英里问题05:10

26、See,when we were dealing with our biology,bacteria,thegenes,the things inside here,the blood,thats complex,butits manageable.当我们面对生物 细菌 基因 内脏 血液这些的时候尽管很复杂 但却是可控的05:15When were dealing with people like this,the mind is morecomplex.当我们面对人的问题的时候 就变得更为复杂了05:24Thats not as manageable.And thats what were

27、strugglingwith.事情就不好控制了 这就是我们在挣扎的问题05:29Let me go back to diarrhea for a second.我们再回到痢疾的问题上05:31Here is a question that was asked in the National SampleSurvey,which is a survey asked of many Indian women.这是全国抽样调查组织 向很多印度女性问的一个问题05:34Your child has diarrhea.如果小孩得了痢疾05:39Should you increase,maintain,o

28、r decrease the number offluids?应该增加 保持还是减少液体摄入?05:41consequences:n.后果,结果;影响(consequence的复数)inconsistent:adj.不一致的;前后矛盾的 inconsistencies:矛盾bacteria:n.微细菌 manageable:adj.易管理的;易控制的;易办的 Survey:n.调查;测量;审视;纵览/vt.调查;勘测;俯瞰/vi.测量土地 fluids:n.流流体(fluid的复数形式);物液体Just so you dont embarrass yourselves,Ill give you

29、 the rightanswer.为了不让你们难堪 我直接告诉你们答案05:44Its increase.是增加05:47Now,diarrhea is interesting because its been around forthousands of years,ever since humankind really lived side byside enough to have really polluted water.痢疾很有意思 它已经存在了几千年 自从人类聚居开始产生废水以来就有了05:51One Roman strategy that was very interestin

30、g,was that,andit really gave them a comparitive advantage,they made suretheir soldiers didnt drink even remotely muddied waters.罗马人有个对付痢疾的办法很有意思 这让他们取得了比较优势 他们连轻微浑浊的水 都不让士兵们饮用06:00Because if some of your troops get diarrhea theyre not thateffective on the battlefield.因为如果有士兵得了立即 就会削弱战斗力06:09So,if yo

31、u think of Roman comparative advantage part of itwas the breast shields,the breast plates,but part of it wasdrinking the right water.大家以为罗马军队的优势在于护甲 但其实正确饮水也是优势之一06:14So,here are these women theyve seen their parents havestruggled with diarrhea,theyve struggled with diarrhea.所以这些妇女们见过父母 为痢疾所困扰 自己也患过

32、痢疾06:20Theyve seen lots of deaths.How do they answer thisquestion?还见过很多死亡病例 她们会如何回答呢?06:24humankind:n.人类(总称)polluted:adj.受污染的;被玷污的/v.污染(pollute的过去式和过去分词)remotely:adv.遥远地;偏僻地;(程度)极微地,极轻地 struggled:vbl.奋斗;努力/v.奋斗;努力In India 35 to 50 percent say reduce.在印度 35%到50%的人回答 减少06:27Think about what that means

33、 for a second.想一下这意味着什么06:3135 to 50 percent of women forget oral rehydration therapy,they are increasing they are actually making their child morelikely to die through their actions.35%到50%的妇女 忽略了口服补液疗法 她们在增加.她们这么做其实是在 增加孩子的死亡率06:33How is that possible?怎么会这样呢?06:45Well,one possibility-I think thats

34、 how most peoplerespond to this-is to say,Thats just stupid.一种可能是 我想大部分人会这样回答 真愚蠢06:47I dont think thats stupid.我觉得这不是愚蠢06:54I think there is something very profoundly right in whatthese women are doing.我认为这些妇女在某种程度上做的是对的06:56And that is,you dont put water into a leaky bucket.也就是 不把水倒在 漏的水桶里06:59So,

35、think of the mental model that goes behind reducing theintake.这个思维模型就是减少输入07:03Just doesnt make sense.只是听上去不太合理07:07Now,the model is intuitively right.这个模型本来是正确的07:09It just doesnt happen to be right about the world.但是应用到实际当中就发生了错误07:12respond to:响应 profoundly:adv.深刻地;深深地;极度地 leaky:adj.漏的;有漏洞的 intak

36、e:n.摄取量;通风口;引入口;引入的量 make sense:有意义;讲得通;言之有理 intuitively:adv.直观地;直觉地But it makes a whole lot of sense at some deep level.但是从深层次上来讲 是有道理的07:16And that,to me,is the fundamental challenge of the lastmile.这对我来说 就是那个最基本的 最后一英里的挑战07:19This first challenge is what I refer to as the persuasionchallenge.第一个挑

37、战我称之为 说服07:27Convincing people to do something,take oral rehydrationtherapy,intercrop,whatever it might be,is not an act ofinformation.劝说别人去做某件事 接受口服补液疗法 间作 诸如此类的 不是说是去提供给人信息07:30Lets give them the data,and when they have data theylldo the right thing.我们给他们罗列数据吧 他们看到数据 就会做正确的事07:37Its more complex t

38、han that.实际远比这复杂的多07:41And if you want to understand how its more complex let mestart with something kind of interesting.为了让你们理解为什么会显得更复杂 我们先来做一个有意思的测验07:43So,Im going to give you a little math problem.我会给你们一道简单的数学题07:49And I want you to yell out the answer as fast as possible.需要你们尽可能快的给出答案07:51A ba

39、t and a ball together cost$1.10.一个球拍和一个球总计1.1美元07:54The bat costs a dollar more than the ball.球拍比球多花1美元07:56How much does the ball cost?Quick.那么一个球要花多少钱?要快07:59So,somebody out there says five.那边有人说5美分08:02persuasion:n.说服;说服力;信念;派别 Convincing:adj.令人信服的;有说服力的/v.使相信;使明白(convince的现在分词)A lot of you said

40、10.不少人说10美分08:04Lets think about 10 for a second.先来考虑下10这个答案08:06If the ball costs 10,the bat costs.如果球是10美分 球拍要花.08:09this is easy,$1.10.很简单 1.1美元08:13Yeah.So,together they would cost$1.20.所以总共要花1.2美元08:15So,here you all are,ostensibly educated people.你们都明显是受过教育的人08:18Most of you look smart.很多看起来很聪

41、明08:21The combination of that produces something that is actually,you got this thing wrong.这几点加起来 反而让你们得出错误的答案08:24How is that possible?Lets go to something else.怎么会这样?再看看其他的08:29I know algebra can be complicated.我知道代数很复杂08:32So,lets dial this back.Thats what?5th grade?4th grade?所以让我们回到.5年级?4年级?08:3

42、5Lets go back to kindergarten.Okay?我们回到幼儿园 好不好?08:38There is a great show on American television that you have towatch.美国有个很赞的电视节目不得不看08:41Its called Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader?叫做 你比小学5年级的聪明吗?08:43I think weve learned the answer to that here.我想我们刚才已经有了答案08:45Lets move to kindergarten.Lets see

43、 if we can beat five yearolds.我们回到幼儿园水平 看看能否打败5岁孩子08:48ostensibly:adv.表面上;外表 algebra:n.代数学 Grader:n.分级机;分类机;(美)(中小学的)年级学生 olds:n.老者(old的复数形式)Here is what Im going to do.Im going to put objects on thescreen.接下来 我会在屏幕上显示一些物体08:51I just want you to name the color of the object.我要你们念出这些物体的颜色08:54Thats a

44、ll it is.Okay?就这么简单 明白了吗?08:58I want you to do it fast.And say it out loud with me.你们要说得快 大声的念出来09:00And do it quickly.Ill make the first one easy for you.要说得快 第一个会比较简单09:03Ready?Black.追备好了吗?黑色09:05Now the next ones I want you to do quickly and say it outloud.接下去 我要你们又快又大声的说出来09:07Ready?Go.准备好了吗?开始0

45、9:09Audience:Red.Green.观众:红 绿09:11Yellow.Blue.Red.黄 蓝 红09:13(Laughter)Sendhil Mullainathan:Thats pretty good.(笑)森德希尔 穆拉伊特丹:很好09:15Almost out of kindergarten.几乎可以幼儿园毕业了09:22What is all this telling us?这又告诉我们什么呢?09:24You see,whats going on here,and in the bat and ballproblem is that you have some intu

46、itive ways of interactingwith the world,some models that you use to understand the刚才的例子以及球拍和球的例子告诉我们 我们通过直觉认识世界 通过某些方式了解世界09:26with the world,some models that you use to understand theworld.www.XiYuS锡育软件These models,like the leaky bucket,work well in mostsituations.这些方法 像漏桶原理那样 在多数情况下都行得通09:34intuit

47、ive:adj.直觉的;凭直觉获知的 interacting:n.相互作用;相互制约/v.互相影响;互相作用(interact的ing形式)I suspect most of you,I hope thats true for the rest of you,actually do pretty well with addition and subtraction in thereal world.我猜你们中的大多数 我希望在座的都是这样 对实际中的加减法都很熟练09:38I found a problem,a specific problem that actually found aner

48、ror with that.我发现一个问题 一个特别的问题 造成了这种漏洞09:46Diarrhea,and many last mile problems,are like that.腹泻和很多最后一英里问题一样09:51They are situations where the mental model doesnt matchthe reality.使那些思维方式 与实际情况不吻合09:53Same thing here,you had an intuitive response to this thatwas very quick.刚才也是如此 你们很快的用直觉做出了反应09:57Yo

49、u read blue and you wanted to say blue,even though youknew your task was red.你们读到蓝 就说蓝色 尽管你们应该说红色10:01Now,I do this stuff because its fun.我做这个实验 是因为这很有趣10:04But its more profound than fun.但这不仅仅在于它是有趣的10:06Ill give you a good example of how it actually effectspersuasion.关于说服力 我给大家举个很好的例子10:10BMW is a

50、 pretty safe car.宝马是安全性很高的车10:13And they are trying to figure out,Safety is good.他们在想 安全性是卖点10:16I want to advertise safety.How am I going to advertisesafety?我要宣传这个卖点 应该怎么宣传呢?10:18I could give people numbers.We do well on crash tests.可以给出数据 说我们的撞击测试性能很好10:20subtraction:n.数减法;减少;差集But the truth of th