StevenPetranek_2002[史蒂芬.潘特奈克][世界末日倒计时].pdf

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1、www.XiYuS锡育软件The advances that have taken place in astronomy,cosmology,and biology,in the last ten years,are reallyextraordinary-to the point where we know more about ouruniverse and how it works than many of you might imagine.在过去十年中，天文学，宇宙学，生物学领域取得的进步 确实令人震惊。以至现在，我们对宇宙及其运作有了更深入的了解，而许多在座的各位是无法想象的。00

2、:12But there was something else that Ive noticed as thosechanges were taking place,as people were starting to findout that hmm.yeah,there really is a black hole at the centerof every galaxy.然而，我注意到另一件事，世界确实是瞬息万变，人们开始发现 嗯.是的，每个星系中心都存在着一个黑洞。00:37The science writers and editors-I shouldnt say sciencewr

3、iters,I should say people who write about science科普类作家和编辑我不用应该说科普类作家的，应该是那些写着关于科学的人们00:48-and editors would sit down over a couple of beers,after ahard day of work,and start talking about some of theseincredible perceptions about how the universe works.还有编辑，会在一天辛苦的工作结束后，坐下来喝一两杯啤酒，聊一聊这些让人无法置信的科学结论，聊一

4、聊宇宙的运行。00:55And they would inevitably end up in what I thought was avery bizarre place,which is ways the world could end verysuddenly.而这类的谈话总不免停滞于一个怪异的问题，至少我认为那很奇怪，就是世界将如何瞬间毁灭。01:06And thats what I wanna talk about today.(Laughter)Ah,youlaugh,you fools.(Laughter)Voice offstage:Can we finish upa litt

5、le early?这也是我今天所要讲的内容。（笑声）啊，你们笑吧，你们这些笨蛋。（笑声）台下观众：如果世界就在这几分钟毁灭，也许讲座可以早点结束？01:15astronomy:n.天文学 cosmology:n.天宇宙论,天宇宙学 perceptions:n.认知;观念(perception的复数);理解inevitably:adv.不可避免地；必然地 bizarre:adj.奇异的(指态度，容貌，款式等)offstage:n.舞台后面;舞台内部/adj.舞台内部的/adv.在舞台内部;私生活里 finish up:v.完成;结束;用光(Laughter)Yeah,we need the ti

6、me!（笑声）是啊，我们时间宝贵！01:29At first it all seemed a little fantastical to me,but afterchallenging a lot of these ideas,I began to take a lot of themseriously.And then September 11th happened,and Ithought,ah,God,一开始我并不相信什么世界末日的，但通过对许多可能性的质疑，我慢慢地开始严肃地对待它们。之后，911事件发生了，我想，天呐01:34I cant go to the TED conferen

7、ce and talk about how theworld is gonna end.我怎么能去TED01:46Nobody wants to hear that.Not after this!没有人想听这个呀。911后更没人想听了！01:49And that got me into a discussion with some other people,other scientists,about maybe some other subjects,and oneof the guys I talked to who was a neuroscientist,said,正因为这个，我又跟很

8、多人，很多科学家们讨论过，也许还存在其他的问题，其中一位神经科学家跟我说，01:54you know,I think there are a lot of solutions to the problemsyou brought up,and reminds me of Michaels talk yesterdayand his mother saying you cant have a solution if you donthave a problem.我认为可以解决你所说的那些危机的方法有很多，我想到麦克昨天的演讲，他母亲告诉他，你有了问题，就不可能没有方法解决。02:04So we

9、went out looking for solutions to ways that the worldmight end tomorrow,and lo and behold,we found them.所以，我们开始去寻找那些方法，阻止世界的毁灭，瞧，我们找到了。02:16Which leads me to a videotape of a President Bush pressconference from a couple of weeks ago.我联想到布什总统的一个记者会，那是几周前的事了。02:24fantastical:adj.空想的;捕风捉影的 conference:n

10、.会议;讨论;协商;联盟;(正式)讨论会;工会,工党用语(每年的)大会/vi.举行或参加(系列)会议 behold:vt.看;注视;把.视为/vi.看/int.瞧;看呀 videotape:n.录像带/vt.将录到录像带上 pressconference:记者招待会,新闻发布会Can we run that,Andrew?安德鲁，可以播放吗？02:32President Bush:Whatever it costs to defend our security,andwhatever it costs to defend our freedom,we must pay it.布什总统：“为了维

11、护我们的安全，保卫自由，要付出再大的代价，也值得。”02:34I agree with the president.我完全赞同。02:43He wants two trillion dollars to protect us from terrorists nextyear,a two trillion dollar federal budget which will land usback into deficit spending real fast明年，布什总统准备花费2万亿美元对付恐怖主义分子，而2万亿的联邦预算将再一次加速赤字增长02:44-but terrorists arent

12、the only threat we face.但是恐怖主义并不是唯一威胁着我们的因素。02:56TED演讲者：Stephen Petranek|史蒂芬.潘特奈克演讲标题：10 ways the world could end|世界末日倒计时内容概要：When he was editor-in-chief of Discover magazine,Stephen Petranek tangled withquestions as big as the universe.Here he confronts the biggest question on the planet:Whatare th

13、e 10 most likely ways that life on the Earth could end?世界将如何毁灭?史蒂芬.潘特奈克为我们呈现保卫人类征程中面临的各类危机。我们将灭亡于小行星撞击?生态系统的崩溃?还是一台出错的粒子撞击机?素。02:56There are really serious calamities staring us in the eye thatwere in the same kind of denial about that we were aboutterrorism and what couldve happened on September 11

14、th.很多严重的灾难一触即发，而我们一如往常地忽略它们，就如 我们对待恐怖主义和9月11日所发生的事情一样02:59I would propose,therefore,that if we took 10 billion dollarsfrom that 2.13 trillion dollar budget所以我建议，如果我们从那预算的2.13万亿元 拿出100亿元出来03:12-which is one-or is 2/100ths of that budget相当于预算的百分之一或百分之二03:21-and we doled out a billion dollars to each o

15、ne of theseproblems Im going to talk to you about-the vast majoritycould be solved,and the rest we could deal with.So I hopeyou find this both fascinating-同时给我要谈的这十个问题，每个问题分配10亿元 那么我告诉你，这些问题很大部分都能被解决。剩下的也可处理。所以我希望，03:27trillion:n.数万亿/adj.万亿的/num.数万亿 calamities:灾害 doled:n.失业救济金;赈济物;施舍品/vt.发放救济;以小份发给

16、and the rest:其他的;等等Im fascinated by this kind of stuff,I gotta admit-to methese are-Richards cockroaches.这些东西很吸引我，我承认 对我来说，这些就如理查德的蟑螂理论般03:41But I also hope-because I think the people in this room canliterally change the world但我也希望因为我相信在座的你们可以改变世界03:50-I hope you take some of this stuff away with yo

17、u,and whenyou have an opportunity to be influential,that you try to getsome heavy duty money spent on some of these ideas.我希望你们能够在今天的演讲中有所收获 等到你们有机会做出有影响力的事的时候 能够把钱花在这几点上03:56So lets start.Number 10:We lose the will to survive.所以让我们开始吧。第十点：我们正失去存活下去的信心。04:08We live in an incredible age of modern med

18、icine;we are allmuch healthier than we were 20 years ago.尽管我们生活在现代医学的神话时代：我们比20年前更健康了，04:17People around the world are getting better medicine-butmentally,were falling apart.而且全世界的人们能得到更好的药物-但是精神上，我们却分崩离析04:24The World Health Organization now estimates that one outof five people on the planet is cli

19、nically depressed.世界卫生组织（WHO）目前估计 全球有五分之一的人临床上被诊断患有抑郁症。04:32And the World Health Organization also says thatdepression is the biggest epidemic that humankind hasever faced.同时世卫也强调抑郁症是 人类有史以来面对的最大疾病。04:40cockroaches:n.昆蟑螂(cockroach的复数)mentally:adv.精神上,智力上;心理上 estimates:n.估计;预算(estimate的复数);概数/v.评价(es

20、timate的三单形式);估量 clinically:adv.临床地;门诊部地;不偏不倚;通过临床诊断 depressed:adj.沮丧的；萧条的；压低的/v.使沮丧；使萧条(depress的过去式和过去分词形式)；压低 depression:n.沮丧;洼地;不景气;忧愁humankind:n.人类(总称)Soon,genetic breakthroughs and even better medicine aregoing to allow us to think of 100 as a normal life-span.不久以后，基因学上的突破或更好的药物 会让我们觉得活到100岁也是正常

21、。04:51A female child born tomorrow on average-median-willlive to age 83.将来出生的女性平均将会活到83岁05:00Our life longevity is going up almost a year for every yearthat passes.我们的生命长度几乎每过一年就会增加一岁。05:08Now the problem with all of this getting older is that peopleover 65 are the most likely people to commit suici

22、de.现在伴随着老龄化的问题却是 超过65岁的人属于最容易自杀的人群。05:13So what are the solutions?所以解决之道是什么？05:20We dont really have mental health insurance in this country,and its-(Applause)-its really a crime.我们的国家并非真正具有精神健康的保险 而这个（鼓掌）这真是个犯罪。05:22Something like 98 percent of all people with depression-and I mean really severe de

23、pression98%的人患有抑郁症 我指的是真正严重的抑郁症05:29-I have a friend with stunningly severe depression我就有个患上严重抑郁症的朋友05:34-this is a curable disease,with present medicine and presenttechnology.抑郁症实际上在现成的药物和技术下是可以治愈的。05:39But it is often a combination of talk therapy and pills.但通常是聊天治疗和药物双管齐下。05:43breakthroughs:突破 me

24、dian:n.n.中值,中位数;三角形中线;梯形中位线/adj.中值的;中央的 longevity:n.长寿，长命；寿命 stunningly:adv.绝妙地;令人震惊地;使人目瞪口呆地 curable:adj.可治愈的;可医治的;可矫正的 therapy:n.治疗，疗法Pills alone dont do it,especially in clinically depressedpeople.单纯的药物治疗是无法起作用的，尤其是对那些临床诊断为抑郁症的人来说05:47You ought to be able to go to a psychiatrist-or apsychologist-

25、and put down your 10 dollar co-pay,andget treated,just like you do when you got a cut on your arm.Its ridiculous.你应该去看精神科医师或者心理医生，放10元钱开始你的治疗 就像你手臂割到去看医生一样。这真是荒谬。05:52Secondly,drug companies are not going to develop reallysophisticated psychoactive drugs.We know that mostmental illnesses have a biol

26、ogical component that can be其次，药品公司并不会研究真正复杂 并对精神起显著效用的药物。我们知道，大多数精神疾病都有可处理的生物成分。06:02mental illnesses have a biological component that can bedealt with.And we know just an amazing amount more about the brainnow than we did ten years ago.We need a pump-push fromthe federal government,through NIH and

27、 National Science-NSF-而且我们比10年前更了解我们的大脑。我们需要来自联邦政府的积极支持，通过像国家卫生研究所（NIH）及国家科学基金会（NSF）06:17and places like that to start helping the drug companiesdevelop some advanced psychoactive drugs.等机构帮助药品公司 研制出一些高级的治疗精神的药物。06:30Moving on.Number nine-dont laugh-aliens invadeearth.我们继续下一个话题。第九点别笑外星人入侵地球。06:3610

28、years ago,you couldnt have found an astronomer-well,very few astronomers-in the world who wouldve toldyou that there are any planets anywhere outside our solarsystem.10年前，全世界没有一个天文学家，亦或极少数宇航员会告诉你 除了我们的太阳系还有其他类地星球存在。06:41psychiatrist:n.精神病学家,精神病医生 psychologist:n.心理学家,心理学者 put down:镇压;记下;贬低;制止 ridicul

29、ous:adj.可笑的；荒谬的 sophisticated:adj.复杂的；精致的；久经世故的；富有经验的/v.使变得世故；使迷惑；篡改(sophisticate的过去分词形式)psychoactive:adj.影响心理状态的;作用于精神的 astronomer:n.天文学家 astronomers:天文学家 solar system:天太阳系1995 we found three,the count nows up to 80,were findingabout two or three a month.但1995年我们发现了3个，现在数目已达80个，这样算我们几乎是每个月发现2-3个。06

30、:51www.XiYuS锡育软件All of the ones weve found,by the way,are in this little teenytiny corner where we live,in the Milky Way.There must bemillions of planets in the Milky Way,and as Carl Saganinsisted for many years,and was laughed at for it,there mustbe billions and billions in the universe.我们所发现的这些星球，

31、就在我们生活的银河系的小小角落。这就意味着整个银河系有着上百万的这样的星球。正如Carl Sagan多年来坚持，却被世人嘲笑的观点，全宇宙一定有不计其数这样的星球。06:59In a few years NASA is gonna launch four or five telescopesout to Jupiter,where theres less dust,and start looking forEarth-like planets,which we cannot see with presenttechnology,nor detect.不久NASA将会发送4-5个天文望远镜到木星

32、 那里星尘比较少，比较容易发现类地星球。因为以我们现有技术是无法在地球亲眼看到或侦测到这些星球。07:16Its becoming obvious that the chance that life does not existelsewhere in the universe,and probably fairly close to us,is afairly remote idea.现在越来越显而易见的观点是，全宇宙除了地球以外不存在任何生命，并此类生命离地球很近这一观点 已变得非常遥远。07:28And the chance that some of it isnt more intel

33、ligent thanours is also a remote idea.而其中外星人并不比我们聪明也是自欺欺人。07:40Remember,weve only been an advanced civilization-anindustrial civilization,if you would-for 200 years,althoughevery time I go to Pompeii Im amazed that they had theequivalent of a McDonalds on every street corner too.请记住，我们只不过是拥有进化的文明 以及

34、工业文明的物种，如果你算时间那也只有200年。尽管我每次去庞培，我总是惊讶于他们在每条街拐弯处都拥有 类似于我们现在麦当劳似的连锁店。07:46teeny:adj.极小的;微小的 Milky:adj.乳白色的;牛奶的;乳状的;柔和的;混浊不清的 amazed:adj.惊奇的,吃惊的/v.使吃惊;把弄糊涂(amaze的过去分词)equivalent:adj.等价的,相等的;同意义的/n.等价物,相等物So I dont know how much civilization really has progressedsince AD 79,but theres a great likelihood

35、-I really believethis,and I dont believe in aliens,but-and I dont believethere are any aliens on the earth所以我并不清楚自从公元79年之后我们的文明究竟进步了多少，但有可能我非常相信这点，并且我虽然不相信外星人我也不相信现在地球上有外星人07:57or anything like that.But theres a likelihood that we willconfront a civilization that is more intelligent than our own.亦或任

36、何类似于外星人的生物。但非常有可能的是，我们将来会面对一支 比我们文明更发达的种族。08:10Now,what will happen?What if they come to,you know,suck up our oceans for the hydrogen?那么，会发生什么事呢？比如它们来了 为了氢吸光了我们的海洋？08:16And swat us away like flies,the way we swat away flies whenwe go into the rainforest and start logging it.像打苍蝇一样打我们，就如我们去热带雨林砍伐树木时

37、拍打苍蝇一样。08:23We can look at our own history-the late physicist GerardONeill said,Advanced western civilization has had adestructive effect on all primitive civilizations it has come incontact with,even in those cases where every attempt wasmade to protect and guard the primitive civilization.回顾我们的历史，

38、就如现代物理学家吉拉德 奥尼尔（Gerard ONeill)所说，“先进的西方文明对所有其接触到的原始文明 产生了毁灭性的影响，即使作了很多努力保护及维持原始文明 也是徒劳。”08:29progressed:n.进步,发展;前进/vi.前进,进步;进行 likelihood:n.可能性，可能 confront:vt.面对;遭遇;比较 suck up:吸收swat:n.用劲打击;重拍;全垒打/vt.重拍;猛击;用力击出(远距离球)/反恐特警组;rainforest:n.(热带)雨林 logging:n.记录;伐木工作/v.把锯成段木;砍伐树木(log的ing形式)civilizations:n.

39、文明(civilization的复数形式)come in contact with:接触If the aliens come visiting,were the primitive civilization.如果外星人来访，我们就是那原始文明。08:49So what are the solutions to this?(Laughter)Thank God youcan all read!所以解决措施是什么？（笑声）感谢上帝你们都看的懂！08:53It may seem ridiculous,but we have a really lousy history ofanticipating

40、things like this and actually being prepared forthem.这看上去也许很荒谬。但我们历史上干过这事的不少，并且现在也是如此准备的。09:05How much energy and money does it take to actually have aplan to negotiate with an advanced species?准备好计划与一个具有高级文明的物种谈判 需要多少精力和金钱呢？09:14Secondly,and youre gonna hear more from me about this-we have to becom

41、e an outward-looking,space-faring nation.第二，我将会着重讲这点 我们必须成为放眼宇宙的太空使用国。09:22We have got to develop the idea that the earth doesnt lastforever,our sun doesnt last forever-if we want humanity tolast forever we have to colonize the Milky Way.我们必须清楚 地球不是永久之计，太阳也不会永远存在 如果我们想要人类物种长存，我们不得不殖民银河系。09:29And tha

42、t is not something that is beyond comprehension atthis point.这一点上，并不难理解。09:40(Applause)Itll also help us a lot if we meet an advancedcivilization along the way,if were trying to be an advancedcivilization.Number eight-（鼓掌）这么做也帮助了我们，如果我们遇上了一个高度文明的物种，亦或我们自己想变成高度文明的物种。第八点09:46Voice offstage:Steve,thats

43、 what Im doing after TED.(Laughter&Applause)Youve got it!Youve got the job.台下声音：史蒂夫，这就是我TED听完后要做的事。（笑声和掌声）你明白了真理！这份工作属于你了！09:56anticipating:adj.预期的;期望的/v.期待;预期(anticipate的ing形式);使提前发生 colonize:vt.将开拓为殖民地;移于殖民地;从他地非法把选民移入/vi.开拓殖民地;移居于殖民地Number eight:The ecosystem collapses.第八点：生态系统的崩溃。10:05Last July,

44、in Science,the journal Science,去年7月的科学杂志10:0719 oceanographers published a very,very unusual article-it wasnt really a research report,it was a screed.19名海洋学家联名发表了一篇非常，非常特殊的文章 这篇文章并不是研究报告，而是篇冗长的文章。10:12They said,weve been looking at the oceans for a long timenow,and we wanna tell you theyre not in t

45、rouble,theyrenear collapse.文章里这么写道：我们一直不停的在观测海洋。我们想告诉世人的是，海洋系统现在并非是陷入困境，而是濒临崩溃。10:18Many other ecosystems on Earth are in real,real danger.地球上其他生态系统也是处于非常，非常危险的境界。10:25Were living in a time of mass extinctions that exceeds thefossil record by a factor of 10,000.我们现在正处于物种大量灭绝的时代，数据是恐龙灭绝数据 的1万倍。10:31W

46、e have lost 25 percent of the unique species in Hawaii inthe last 20 years,California is expected to lose 25 percent ofits species in the next 40 years.在过去的20年，夏威夷已经失去了其25%的独有物种，加利福尼亚预计在以后的40年内会失去25%的物种。10:37Somewhere in the Amazon forest is the marginal tree.亚马逊雨林的某处，会有这样一种树，己剩最后一棵。10:48ecosystem:n

47、.生态系统 collapses:vt.使倒塌;使瓦解/vi.倒塌;崩溃;价格下跌/n.倒塌;失败;体力不支 oceanographers:n.海洋学家;海洋研究者 screed:n.冗长的文章;地质砂浆层 ecosystems:n.生态系统(ecosystem的复数)extinctions:n.生物灭绝(extinction的复数);消失;废除 exceeds:vt.超过;胜过/vi.超过其他 marginal:adj.边缘的；临界的；末端的You cut down that tree,the rain forest collapses as anecosystem.你把那棵树砍了，整个雨林会

48、作为同一个生态系统崩溃。10:52Theres really a tree like that out there.Thats really what itcomes to.就有一棵树是这样的存在。结果也会如此。10:56And when that ecosystem collapses,it could take a majorecosystem with it,like our atmosphere.So what do we doabout this?What are the solutions?当这个生态系统崩溃之时，可能影响到另一个更大的生态系统，比如我们的大气层。所以我们该怎么办呢

49、？10:59There is some modeling of ecosystems going on now.我们现在在进行一些生态系统模拟试验。11:11The problem with ecosystems is that we understand them sopoorly,that we dont know theyre really in trouble,until itsalmost too late.生态系统的问题是，我们对它们知之甚少，以至于我们不知道它们陷入困境，等到我们发现的时候就已将太迟了。11:14We need to know earlier that theyr

50、e getting in trouble,andwe need to be able to pump possible solutions into models.我们必须在它们陷入困境之前预知，并能够给予模型可行的解决之道。11:23And with the kind of computing power we have now配与我们现有的电脑技术11:31-there is,as I say,some of this going on,but it needs money.这就是我说的正在进行的模型试验，但需要金钱。11:34National Science Foundation nee