SethShostak_2012X[赛斯.肖斯塔克][外星人（可能）真的存在 -- 请准备好].pdf

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1、www.XiYuS锡育软件Thank you.(Applause)Is E.T.out there?外星人真的存在吗？1105556Well,I work at the SETI Institute.我在SETI机构工作00:13Thats almost my name.SETI:Search for ExtraterrestrialIntelligence.SETI几乎成为了我的代名词 它的意思是:搜寻地外文明计划00:16In other words,I look for aliens,and when I tell people that ata cocktail party,they

2、usually look at me with a mildlyincredulous look on their face.换句话说,我的工作是寻找外星人 当我在一个鸡尾酒聚会上跟人说起我的工作,他们通常 会带着一副友善却怀疑的样子看着我00:20I try to keep my own face somewhat dispassionate.而我尽量让自己看起来很镇静00:28Now,a lot of people think that this is kind of idealistic,ridiculous,maybe even hopeless,but I just want to

3、talk toyou a little bit about why I think that the job I have is actuallya privilege,okay,现在很多人都认为寻找外星人这件事太理想化 很可笑,甚至可能毫无希望 但是我只想跟你们解释为什么我认为 我的工作事实上是一个特权,好吗？00:30and give you a little bit of the motivation for my getting intothis line of work,if thats what you call it.我还会告诉你们促使我走向 这条不归路 的动机-如果你们这样称呼

4、它的话00:43This thing?whoops,can we go back?这件事-哦,能倒回去吗？00:47Extraterrestrial:adj.地球外的/n.天外来客 mildly:adv.温和地,和善地;适度地 incredulous:adj.怀疑的;不轻信的dispassionate:adj.不带感情的;平心静气的;公平的 idealistic:adj.理想主义的;唯心论的;唯心主义者的;空想家的ridiculous:adj.可笑的；荒谬的 motivation:n.动机;积极性;推动 whoops:int.哎呀！Hello,come in,Earth.拜托00:50Ther

5、e we go.All right.好了,我们继续00:53This is the Owens Valley Radio Observatory behind theSierra Nevadas,and in 1968,I was working there collectingdata for my thesis.这是奥文斯谷射电天文台 它坐落在内华达山脉后面,在1968年 我就在那里工作,为我的论文搜集数据00:54Now,its kinda lonely,its kinda tedious,just collecting data,so I would amuse myself by t

6、aking photos at night of thetelescopes or even of myself,因为只是收集数据难免会有些孤单,有些无聊 所以我会在晚上为望远镜 甚至给自己拍照作为娱乐01:02because,you know,at night,I would be the only hominidwithin about 30 miles.因为在晚上,我是30英里内 唯一的原始人01:11So here are pictures of myself.这里有些我自己的照片01:18The observatory had just acquired a new book,wri

7、tten by aRussian cosmologist by the name of Joseph Shklovsky,andthen expanded and translated and edited by a little-known天文台刚刚添置了一本新书 是一位俄国宇宙学家所著 他的名字是约瑟夫.什克洛夫斯基,这本书还被一位鲜为人知的康奈尔天文学家卡尔.萨根01:20Cornell astronomer by the name of Carl Sagan.扩写,翻译并校订01:31Observatory:n.天文台;气象台;瞭望台 thesis:n.论文；论点 hominid:n.

8、原始人类;人科动物/adj.人类及其祖先的 writtenby:由所写 cosmologist:n.宇宙论者,宇宙学家 by the name of:名叫;以的名义 expanded:adj.扩充的;展开的/vt.扩大(expand的过去式)little-known:鲜为人知的 astronomer:n.天文学家And I remember reading that book,and at 3 in the morning Iwas reading this book and it was explaining how theantennas I was using to measure th

9、e spins of galaxies couldalso be used to communicate,to send bits of informationfrom one star system to another.我记得在读这本书的时候,那是凌晨三点 我正好看到一段在写 我用来测量旋转星系的天线还可以用来 进行通信,从一个星系发送信息 去另外一个星系01:34Now,at 3 oclock in the morning when youre all alone,havent had much sleep,that was a very romantic idea,but itwas

10、that idea-the fact that you could in fact prove thattheres somebody out there just using this same technology-你想想,凌晨三点,你自己一个人 没睡多少觉,而那又是一个非常浪漫的念头 但正是因为“你也许真的可以 证明有外星人 而且只需用到同样的科学技术”01:51that appealed to me so much that 20 years later I took a jobat the SETI Institute.Now,I have to say that my memory

11、 isnotoriously porous,and Ive often这个念头的吸引力太大了,所以20年后 我选择了SETI机构工作。现在,我必须要说 我的记忆力是众所周知的不可靠,甚至我自己经常02:03wondered whether there was any truth in this story,or I wasjust,you know,misremembering something,but I recentlyjust blew up this old negative of mine,and sure enough,there you can see the Shklovsk

12、y and Sagan book underneath怀疑这个故事到底有没有真实性 也许我只是记错了什么 但是最近我刚刚赶走了这个消极的想法 并且我非常确定,你可以看到 那本由什克洛夫斯基和赛根编写的书 就在那部模拟计算装置的下面02:12TED演讲者：Seth Shostak|赛斯.肖斯塔克演讲标题：Seth Shostak:ET is(probably)out there-get ready|外星人（可能）真的存在-请准备好内容概要：Seth Shostak is an astronomer,alien hunter and bulwark of good,exciting science

13、.SETI研究员赛斯.肖斯塔克打赌说我们会在接下来的24年里找到外星生物，否则他就免费请你喝杯咖啡。在TED的加州圣何塞拍摄点，他解释了新的科学技术和概率学规律是如何证明寻找外星人很可能有重大突破的-也预测了如果发现一个比我们先进很多的文明会对地球造成什么影响。（TED加州圣何塞拍摄）there you can see the Shklovsky and Sagan book underneaththat analog calculating device.02:12antennas:n.电讯天线,动触角(antenna的复数形式)spins:n.物旋转;暴跌;尖硬纤维(spin的复数)/v.

14、物旋转(spin的三单形式);纺;编造;疾驰 all alone:独立地,独自地 appealed:v.呼吁(appeal的过去分词);求助;诉请 notoriously:adv.众所周知地;声名狼藉地;恶名昭彰地 porous:adj.多孔渗水的;能渗透的;有气孔的 misremembering:vt.记错 analog:n.自模拟;类似物/adj.自模拟的;有长短针的So it was true.所以这个故事是真实的02:24All right.Now,the idea for doing this,it wasnt very old atthe time that I made that

15、 photo.好了,用天线和外星人联络这一理念距离 我照下那张照片的时间并不是很久02:25这个理念可以追溯到1960年,当时一个年轻的天文学家 弗兰克.德雷克用西弗吉尼亚州的一根天线 指向了一些附近的星球 希望能偷听到外星人的谈话02:29Now,Frank didnt hear anything.但是,弗兰克并没有听到什么02:42Actually he did,but it turned out to be the U.S.Air Force,which doesnt count as extraterrestrial intelligence.事实上他听到了一些声音,但是那只来自美国空

16、军并不是什么“外星文明”02:44But Drakes idea here became very popular because it wasvery appealing?and Ill get back to that?and on thebasis of this experiment,which didnt succeed,we have beendoing SETI ever since,not continuously,but ever since.但是德雷克的理念从此以后开始流行 因为它很吸引人-等会儿我还会说到 在这个并没有成功的实验基础上,我们从此之后就开始做SETI了 有过

17、间断,但是一直在做02:49We still havent heard anything.我们还没听到任何东西03:02We still havent heard anything.我们还没听到任何东西03:03In fact,we dont know about any life beyond Earth,but Imgoing to suggest to you that thats going to change rathersoon,and part of the reason,in fact,事实上,我们还不知道任何除地球以外的生命 但是我认为这一切即将有变化 一部分原因是,事实上0

18、3:05the majority of the reason why I think thats going to changeis that the equipments getting better.大部分原因 是因为设备更加先进了03:12This is the Allen Telescope Array,about 350 miles fromwhatever seat youre in right now.这是艾伦望远镜系列,离你现在的位置 大约350英里远03:16on the basis of:根据;基于 continuously:adv.连续不断地This is somethi

19、ng that were using today to search for E.T.,and the electronics have gotten very much better too.这是我们现在用来搜寻外星人的仪器 其他的电子设备 也比以前提高了很多03:21This is Frank Drakes electronics in 1960.这是弗兰克.额雷克在1960年使用的电子设备03:27This is the Allen Telescope Array electronics today.这是如今的艾伦望远镜系列电子设备03:29Some pundit with too mu

20、ch time on his hands has reckonedthat the new experiments are approximately 100 trilliontimes better than they were in 1960,100 trillion times better.有些闲的发慌的权威人士 认为新的实验几乎 比1960年的要精准百万亿倍 百万亿倍啊03:31Thats a degree of an improvement that would look good onyour report card,okay?如此大幅度的水平提升会 在你的报告上看起来非常显著,

21、对吗？03:44But something thats not appreciated by the public is,in fact,that the experiment continues to get better,and,consequently,tends to get faster.但是没有被大众赏识的一点是 事实上,这个实验正在越做越好 所以也会越来越快03:48This is a little plot,and every time you show a plot,you lose10 percent of the audience.这是一个示意图,每当你展示示意图的时候

22、你通常会损失百分之十的听众03:56electronics:n.电子学;电子工业 pundit:n.博学者;梵文学者 reckoned:vt.测算,估计;认为;计算/vi.估计;计算;猜想,料想approximately:adv.大约,近似地;近于 trillion:n.数万亿/adj.万亿的/num.数万亿 report card:成绩单/工作报告consequently:adv.因此；结果；所以 tends:vi.趋向,倾向;照料,照顾/vt.照料,照管I have 12 of these.(Laughter)But what I plotted here is justsome metr

23、ic that shows how fast were searching.不幸的是我有12个（笑声）但是我绘制的只是一些 会显示我们搜寻速度的度量标准03:59In other words,were looking for a needle in a haystack.换句话说,我们正在大海捞针04:09We know how big the haystack is.Its the galaxy.我们知道大海有多大,它代表整个银河系04:11But were going through the haystack no longer with ateaspoon but with a skip

24、 loader,because of this increase inspeed.但是我们不再只用一个汤匙在捞 而是用一个翻斗车 这因为这样,我们的速度加快了04:13In fact,those of you who are still conscious andmathematically competent,will note that this is a semi-logplot.事实上,你们其中有些仍然清醒 并有数学头脑的人会注意到这是一个半对数图04:20In other words,the rate of increase is exponential.换句话说,增长率是呈指数增长

25、的04:26Its exponentially improving.Now,exponential is anoverworked word.You hear it on the media all the time.它是呈指数增长的。指数是 一个被过度消费的词语。你总是能在媒体上听到04:30They dont really know what exponential means,but this isexponential.他们根本不懂指数是什么意思 但这个的确是指数04:36haystack:n.干草堆/比喻如大海捞针般难找 teaspoon:n.茶匙;一茶匙的量 loader:n.装货

26、的人;载入程序;装货设备;装填器conscious:adj.意识到的；故意的；神志清醒的 mathematically:adv.算术地,数学上地 semi-log:adj.半对数的exponential:adj.指数的/n.指数 exponentially:adv.以指数方式 overworked:adj.劳经工作过度的;劳累过度的/v.劳经使工作过度;使过分劳累(overwork的过去分词)In fact,its doubling every 18 months,and,of course,everycard-carrying member of the digerati knows tha

27、t thatsMoores Law.事实上,这个速度每18个月都会翻倍,当然 每个先知先觉的正牌会员都知道 这个正是摩尔定律04:39So this means that over the course of the next two dozenyears,well be able to look at a million star systems,a millionstar systems,looking for signals that would provesomebodys out there.所以这代表着在接下来的 24年过程中,我们能看到一百万个星系 而在这一百万个星系里面,我们要

28、寻找 能够证明有外星人存在的信号04:45Well,a million star systems,is that interesting?一百万个星系,听起来很有趣吧？04:56www.XiYuS锡育软件I mean,how many of those star systems have planets?我的意思是,在他们里面又有多少个星系有行星呢？04:58And the facts are,we didnt know the answer to that even asrecently as 15 years ago,and in fact,we really didnt know ite

29、ven as recently as six months ago.事实是我们在过去的15年里不知道答案 事实上,我们 在过去的六个月内也还是不知道答案05:01But now we do.Recent results suggest that virtually everystar has planets,and more than one.但现在我们知道了。最新的结果显示 几乎每个恒星都有行星,而且不止一个05:09Theyre like,you know,kittens.You get a litter.星球就像是,你知道,小猫咪05:15You dont get one kitten.

30、You get a bunch.一个窝里面可能没有小猫咪,也可能有一堆小猫咪05:18So in fact,this is a pretty accurate estimate of the number ofplanets in our galaxy,just in our galaxy,by the way,and Iremind the non-astronomy majors among you that ourgalaxy is only one of 100 billion that we can see with ourtelescopes.所以事实上,这个结果已经非常精确的估计

31、了 银河系里行星的数量 顺便说一句,这个发现只限于我们的银河系 请允许我提醒在座的非天文专业听众 我们的银河系只是 我们能用望远镜看到的1000亿个星系之一05:20doubling:n.加倍;并线;折回;防护板;衬里/v.使加倍;使成双(double的ing形式);绕过;握紧/adj.双重的;折叠的 card-carrying:adj.持有正式成员证的;正式的 kitten:n.小猫;小动物/vi.产小猫 majors:n.专业;主修(major的复数)/v.主修(major的第三人称单数形式)Thats a lot of real estate,but of course,most of

32、these planetsare going to be kind of worthless,like,you know,Mercury,orNeptune.这个数量很惊人,但是当然 大部分行星都是没有研究价值的 比如说像是水星,或是海王星05:36Neptunes probably not very big in your life.你可能甚至没有听说过海王星05:42So the question is,what fraction of these planets are actuallysuitable for life?所以现在问题是,这些星球中有多少 是适合生命存在的？05:44We

33、 dont know the answer to that either,but we will learnthat answer this year,thanks to NASAs Kepler SpaceTelescope,and in fact,the smart money,which is to say thepeople who work on this project,我们也不知道这个问题的答案 但是我们今年将会有答案 这多亏美国航空航天局的开普勒太空望远镜 而事实上,精英们,也就是那些为这个项目工作的人们05:50the smart money is suggesting th

34、at the fraction of planetsthat might be suitable for life is maybe one in a thousand,one in a hundred,something like that.他们认为可能有生命存在的星球比例 可能是千分之一 或百分之一之类05:59Well,even taking the pessimistic estimate,that its one in athousand,that means that there are at least a billion cousinsof the Earth just in

35、our own galaxy.那么,就算是采用最悲观的预测 千分之一的概率,这意味着 在我们的银河系中 至少有十亿和地球的兄弟姐妹06:10Okay,now Ive given you a lot of numbers here,but theyremostly big numbers,okay,so,you know,keep that in mind.Theres plenty of real estate,plenty of real estate in theuniverse,好的,现在我已经给了你们很多数据 但他们大部分都是大数据,好的 记住他们,宇宙中有很多很多房子很多很多06:1

36、9Mercury:n.化汞，水银/天水星/温度表/精神，元气 smart money:抚恤金;罚款;因掌握内情而下的赌注;(英)伤兵抚恤one in a thousand:杰出的;稀有的;百里挑一and if were the only bit of real estate in which theres someinteresting occupants,that makes you a miracle,and I knowyou like to think youre a miracle,如果我们是少数房子里的唯一 居住者的话,这算得上是一个奇迹 我也知道你很希望自己是个奇迹06:30bu

37、t if you do science,you learn rather quickly that every timeyou think youre a miracle,youre wrong,so probably not thecase.但是如果你懂科学,你就会迅速理解 每当你认为自己是个奇迹的时候,你都是错的 所以这应该不是事实06:39All right,so the bottom line is this:Because of the increase inspeed,and because of the vast amount of habitable realestate in

38、 the cosmos,I figure were going to pick up a signalwithin two dozen years.好了,我们的底线就是:由于速度的增长和 宇宙拥有的大量可生存的房子,我认为 我们会在24年内找出一个信号06:45And I feel strongly enough about that to make a bet with而且我强烈认为我可以用它和你打个赌:要么就是我们在接下来的24年内找到外星人 要么我就请你And I feel strongly enough about that to make a bet withyou:Either w

39、ere going to find E.T.in the next two dozenyears,or Ill buy you a cup of coffee.我们在接下来的24年内找到外星人 要么我就请你喝一杯咖啡06:57So thats not so bad.I mean,even with two dozen years,youopen up your browser and theres news of a signal,or youget a cup of coffee.所以这样对谁都不坏,我的意思是,就算是24年 你打开了你的浏览器,看到一则关于外星人信号的新闻不然你免费喝到一杯

40、咖啡07:06Now,let me tell you about some aspect of this that peopledont think about,and that is,what happens?Suppose thatwhat I say is true.现在,让我告诉你一些 人们还没想到的方面,就是发现外星人之后 会发生什么？假设我说的都是真的07:12occupants:n.居住者;购买者;租赁人(occupant的复数)bottom line:结果;概要;帐本底线 habitable:adj.可居住的;适于居住的 cosmos:n.宇宙;和谐;秩序;大波斯菊 open

41、up:打开;开发;开始;展示,揭露 browser:n.计浏览器;吃嫩叶的动物;浏览书本的人I mean,who knows,but suppose it happens.谁知道呢？但请假设它会发生07:22Suppose some time in the next two dozen years we pick up afaint line that tells us we have some cosmic company.假设在接下来的24年里的某个时间 我们接受到一个微弱的信号 它意味着我们在宇宙里找到了同类07:24What is the effect?Whats the conseq

42、uence?这会带来什么影响？会有什么后果？07:30Now,I might be at ground zero for this.我可能对这些一无所知07:32I happen to know what the consequence for me would be,because weve had false alarms.This is 1997,and this is aphoto I made at about 3 oclock in the morning in MountainView here,when we were watching但我知道对于我来说后果是什么 因为我们曾经

43、有过一场虚惊。那是1997年 这是我在凌晨三点拍下的一张照片 在这儿,山景城（加州城市）,我们正在看07:34the computer monitors because we had picked up a signalthat we thought,This is the real deal.All right?电脑屏幕,因为我们刚刚接收到了一个信号 我们在想:“这是另一座房子。”明白了吗？07:43And I kept waiting for the Men in Black to show up.Right?而我一直在等待黑衣人的出现07:48I kept waiting for-I k

44、ept waiting for my mom to call,somebody to call,the government to call.Nobody called.我一直等一直等-等我妈打电话来 其他人打电话来,政府打电话来。但没有人打来07:52Nobody called.I was so nervous that I couldnt sit down.I justwandered around taking photos like this one,just forsomething to do.没有人。我非常紧张 坐立不安。我只是走来走去拍些相似的照片,纯粹为了找些事情干07:59

45、cosmic:adj.宇宙的(等于cosmical)consequence:n.结果;重要性;推论 ground zero:“爆心投影点”组织;着地点monitors:n.自监视器,监控器;情况通报(monitor复数形式)wandered:vi.徘徊;漫步;迷路;离题/vt.游荡,漫游Well,at 9:30 in the morning,with my head down on my deskbecause I obviously hadnt slept all night,the phone ringsand its The New York Times.到了早上9:30,我的头撞在了书

46、桌上 因为显然我整晚都没睡 电话响了,是纽约时报08:07And I think theres a lesson in that,and that lesson is that ifwe pick up a signal,the media,the media will be on it fasterthan a weasel on ball bearings.Its going to be fast.我认为我学到了一课,就是 如果我们接收到了一个信号,媒体一定会收到风 媒体的速度是任何其他事物都无法比拟的08:13You can be sure of that.No secrecy.相信我,

47、这已经不是一个秘密了08:23Thats what happens to me.It kind of ruins my whole week,because whatever Ive got planned that week is kind of outthe window.它就发生在我身上。这件事几乎毁了我整整一周因为我所有的计划都泡汤了08:25But what about you?Whats it going to do to you?但是你呢？在你身上会发生什么？08:31And the answer is that we dont know the answer.答案就是我们也不知

48、道会发生什么08:33We dont know what thats going to do to you,not in thelong term,and not even very much in the short term.我们不知道在你身上会发生什么 长期来说不知道,短期来说也不知道08:35I mean,that would be a bit like asking Chris Columbus in1491,Hey Chris,you know,what happens if it turns out thattheres a continent between here and

49、Japan,where youresailing to,what will be the consequences for humanity ifthat turns out to be the case?这就像是 在1491年问克里斯.哥伦布:“嘿,克里斯如果你发现这儿和日本之间 还有一块大陆,就在你航行的方向 如果是真的,那你觉得这对整个人类来说 究竟意味着什么？08:39weasel:vi.逃避;含糊其辞/n.鼬鼠;狡猾的人 bearings:n.轴承(bearing的复数形式)secrecy:n.保密;秘密;隐蔽 ruins:n.遗迹(ruin的复数形式);废墟/v.毁灭(ruin的三

50、单形式)out the window:突然失去了,或者是浪费了某样东西。sailing:n.航行,航海;启航;航海术/adj.航行的/v.航行,起航(sail的现在分词形式)consequences:n.后果,结果;影响(consequence的复数)And I think Chris would probably offer you some answer thatyou might not have understood,but it probably wouldnthave been right,and I think that to predict what finding E.T.s